The fourth quarter of Terrorism Watch 2025 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from October to December 2025.
At the global level, countries such as Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Nigeria continue to face persistent terrorist threats due to unresolved internal conflicts. At the same time, extremist sentiments and ideologies of hatred are continuously manipulated by supporters and sympathisers of terrorist groups to gain support and expand their influence within society. The prolonged internal conflict in Syria has created opportunities for Daesh to exploit political and security instability to re-establish and strengthen their position. Consequently, Syria, along with Nigeria, has embraced a strategic approach by obtaining military assistance from foreign countries such as the United States. Nonetheless, this action has the potential to be exploited by terrorist groups aiming to construct unfavorable narratives by questioning the involvement of foreign powers and misrepresenting such assistance as a form of colonialism. Such narratives risk fueling the spread of extremist ideologies and encouraging the rise of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) and lone wolf actors on a global and regional scale.
At the regional level, the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia remains a serious concern. In Indonesia, the mosque bombings incidents that occurred cannot be definitively associated with any terrorist group. The phenomenon of self-radicalisation, which exists and occurs silently, is fueled by society’s engagement with limitless social media beginning to rise. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, terrorist acts continue to be focused on the Mindanao region, however the threat level seems to be diminishing because of ongoing pressure from security forces.
In Malaysia, the national threat level remains at a moderate stage, indicating the possibility of an attack but with no specific or confirmed threat identified. Although the risk of physical attacks remains low, the spread of online radicalisation and the dissemination of extremist narratives in public spaces continue to be key areas of concern. Moreover, the publication of newspaper reports regarding the sentencing of a welder involved in financing terrorism around 10 years ago is considered significant in serving as a reminder and lesson to the community, deterring participation in any terrorism-related activities.
INTRODUCTION
Throughout various countries, the fourth quarter of 2025 has been characterised by significant developments, with terrorist and militant groups sustaining their activities in conflict areas to consolidate and strengthen their influence.
The following are the highlights of recent terrorism-related occurrences around the world:
a. Pakistan.
(1) On 20 Oct 25, five (5) security personnel from Pakistan and eight (8) militants were killed, while 10 others sustained injuries in an ambush on the outskirts of Dera Ismail Khan district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The clash took place when a heavily armed militant group attacked the security personnel assigned to protect the main gas pipeline project in the area. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack so far; however, the modus operandi used suggests the involvement of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
(2) On 11 Nov 25, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) executed a suicide bombing that killed at least 12 people and injured 27 others in the Islamabad District Court area, Pakistan. The incident began when a suicide bomber reportedly attempted to access the court premises but detonated himself at the main entrance after being unable to bypass security. The intense blast occurred near a police vehicle, causing significant destruction and casualties at the scene.
(3) These attacks and clashes underscore the persistent threat posed by the TTP terrorist group to government facilities and national security, especially in prominent locations like Pakistan’s capital and specific hotspot regions. This incident signifies a resurgence of TTP activities, which are now regarded as more daring in focusing on significant urban and strategic locations, potentially paving the way for large-scale attacks. This may be occurring because of the persistent tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which weaken regional stability, especially regarding South Asian security. Pakistan’s security forces are expected to enhance security cooperation and intelligence-sharing with international partners, particularly neighbouring countries and strategic allies. In addition, Pakistan’s security forces are expected to military and intelligence efforts in the northwestern regions of the country and adjacent to the Pakistan–Afghanistan border to track down terrorist networks and disrupt their logistical support. Furthermore, actions to enhance security measures in major city areas are anticipated to be carried out, particularly at government buildings and judicial premises that are highly vulnerable to potential terrorist attacks.
b. Somalia.
(1) On 6 Nov 25, Daesh executed an ambush against members of the Puntland Defence Force (PDF) near the Shankali well in the Baallade Valley, Bari region. The attack resulted in the deaths of 10 PDF members and left 20 others injured, while Daesh captured several weapons belonging to the PDF.
(2) On 26 Nov 25, Somali security forces conducted a military operation that successfully eliminated a high-ranking leader of the terrorist group Al-Shabaab in the Cumar Beere area of Lower Shabelle, Somalia. The leader, identified as Hassan Sidow Hussein, was a key figure within Al-Shabaab’s operational structure and served as the head of operations for the Middle Shabelle, Hiran and Galgaduud regions. He was recognised as a key planner in organising the group’s activities and was deeply engaged in improvised explosive device (IED) operations.
(3) The continued Daesh attacks against PDF personnel over the last month have been identified through a series of reported incidents. It indicating that Daesh is likely to persist in carrying out similar isolated attacks to disrupt PDF operations in selected regions for a certain period. Somalia continues to face a significant threat from Al-Shabaab, which remains active in carrying out attacks and terrorist activities across various regions of the country. These latest advancements indicate that the terrorist organisation retains operational abilities that can endanger national security. Nonetheless, the achievement of the military operation by Somali security forces in removing this crucial Al-Shabaab individual is predicted to influence the terrorist organisation tactically, especially regarding operational coordination and IED operations. His absence could diminish the internal cohesion of the terrorist organization in the short term, though Al-Shabaab is likely to try to address the void swiftly. Consequently, Somali security forces are believed to continue intensifying security operations as a proactive measure to protect civilians and disrupt the terrorist network’s support structures and infrastructure in the country.
c. Syria.
(1) On 9 Nov 25, Syrian security forces initiated a significant military operation targeting Daesh cells across Syria. 61 raids were executed, leading to the apprehension of 71 suspected terrorists and the confiscation of weapons and explosives. This pre-emptive operation was carried out ahead of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Washington for a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which Syria’s participation in the U.S.-led international coalition against Daesh was to be discussed.
(2) This extensive military operation carried out by the Syrian government clearly demonstrates the new leadership’s dedication to reinforcing stability and restoring the national security structure. This pre-emptive action also demonstrates that the Syrian government is striving to assert full control over its territory, while simultaneously rebuilding international confidence in its capability to combat terrorism. Nevertheless, this event highlights that Daesh factions remain active and could pose a risk to the stability of the new administration after the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime. The meeting between the Syrian President and the U.S. President, seen as a strategic diplomatic move which anticipated to bolster the political position of the new administration globally and create opportunities for international cooperation in the persistent terrorism challenge within the nation.
d. Nigeria.
(1) On 25 Dec 25, U.S. launched an airstrike against terrorists linked to the Daesh group in Sokoto State, Northwestern Nigeria. Further details regarding casualties and damage were not disclosed. U.S. stated that the strike was carried out based on intelligence and with approval from the Nigerian government.
(2) These recent developments in Nigeria demonstrate the ongoing commitment of Nigerian security forces, alongside international partners, in combating terrorism within the nation. Nigerian security forces are expected to maintain sustained pressure on terrorist groups in the country, ensuring that the influence of these groups is gradually weakened. However, this approach is also expected to have a negative impact, as the involvement of foreign military forces could be misinterpreted as a form of colonialism by those who oppose the government’s authorisation of the attacks. This situation, in turn, creates a chance for terrorist groups to keep promoting ideologies and narratives.
TERRORISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
INDONESIA
On 7 Nov 25, approximately 50 individuals sustained injuries in an explosion that took place at a mosque located in Sekolah Menengah Atas Negeri (SMAN) 72 Perumahan Tentera Laut Kelapa Gading, North Jakarta, Indonesia. Indonesian security forces have identified a 17-year-old student as the main suspect in the incident. Explosive materials and replicas weapon bearing inscriptions related to extremist elements were discovered at the location of the incident.
This explosion event is the first instance in Indonesia that involves an educational institution. The country had been largely free from such explosion incidents in recent years—the last being the blast at Astana Anyar Police Station. The explosion, which occurred while worshippers were performing Friday prayers, indicates an intent to cause maximum chaos, although the true motive behind the incident has yet to be determined. Initial signs indicate that the main reason behind this event could be the potential impact of radical ideologies on the individual involved. The finding of replicas weapon with markings associated with extremist groups suggests that the suspect might have encountered extremist ideology via social media or online platforms. This trend corresponds with instances of self-radicalisation, which are becoming more common among youth.
This situation illustrates that extremist and radical narratives have the potential to penetrate student communities via virtual platforms, consequently threatening national and regional security. Indonesia taking this incident seriously and expected to tighten security measures, prevent radicalisation, and implement psychological recovery programs for affected communities, particularly among youth.
THE PHILIPPINES
On 8 Dec 25, a top leader of the Dawlah Islamiyah–Hassan Group (DI-HG), who served as the group’s bomb expert, was neutralized during a security operation conducted in Shariff Aguak, Maguindanao del Sur, Philippines. According to the commander of the 601st Infantry Brigade, the suspect was identified as Ustad Mohammad Usman Solaiman, who served as the “Amir” of DI-HG.
The success of Philippine security forces in eliminating a high-profile figure from the DI-HG group represents a significant development in Mindanao’s security landscape. This operation is not merely a tactical success but also carries broader strategic implications for counter-terrorism operations in the region. Solaiman’s death is regarded as a major blow to the DI-HG structure. He was not only regarded as the “Amir” but also as someone with expertise in explosive manufacturing. His death will directly weaken the group’s ability to plan and carry out high-impact attacks in future. This subsequently diminishes the danger to civilians and essential infrastructure within the country.
In addition, the achievement of this operation stemmed from effective collaboration between the local community and law enforcement. Intelligence and information shared by residents assisted security forces locate Solaiman’s hideout. This effort, in turn, enhances public trust in the security forces’ counter-terrorism initiatives. While this achievement is noteworthy, it does not indicate the absolute end of the DI-HG threat. Philippine security forces must seriously consider the presence of sleeper cells that can adapt following the loss of a leader. Philippines is expected to continue strengthening counter-terrorism strategies and programs to ensure that there is no space for the resurgence of extremism, radicalism, and terrorism within the country and the region.
MALAYSIA
On 16 Dec 25, a contract welder was sentenced to three years in prison by the High Court in Kuala Lumpur. Mohd Zairul Mahmud, 40, was charged with indirectly handling the assets of a Daesh terrorist by allowing deposits of RM10,000 and withdrawals of RM6,000 from his bank account for the benefit of a Daesh terrorist ten years ago. The offense took place at a bank in Bandar Seri Alam, Masai, Johor Bahru, between 25 February 2015 and 8 May 2015. He was charged under Section 130Q(1) of the Penal Code, which provides for a maximum prison sentence of 20 years or a fine.
CONCLUSION
At the global level, countries such as Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Nigeria still encounter terrorist due to ongoing internal unrest. At the same time, extremist sentiments and hate-based ideologies continue to be exploited by supporters and sympathisers of terrorist groups to garner public backing and expand their influence within society. The ongoing internal conflict in Syria continues to create opportunities for Daesh to exploit political and security instability in order to re-strengthen its position. As a result, Syria, along with Nigeria, has been seen to adopt a strategic approach by involving military assistance from foreign countries such as the United States. Nonetheless, this move might enable terrorist groups to exploit the circumstances by manipulating it. This situation raises the potential for a resurgence of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) and lone-wolf actors at both the global and regional levels.
The terrorism threat level in Malaysia remains at a moderate level, indicating the possibility of an attack, though no specific threat has been identified. Although the risk of physical threats is still assessed as low, the spread of online radicalisation and the dissemination of extremist ideologies in public spaces must remain under diligent surveillance and consistently restrained. In addition, the release of news articles regarding the sentence imposed to a welder linked to financing terrorism nearly a decade ago is perceived as a warning and lesson for society to avoid in any form of terrorism-related activities.
Overall, the threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels is expected to persist and continue to pose concerns for countries worldwide. The widespread use of social media in daily life has become a key enabler of extremist propaganda dissemination, increasing the likelihood of lone-wolf actors and making it more difficult for authorities to detect and prevent threats at an early stage. Therefore, enhanced regional cooperation and intelligence sharing among nations remain crucial to ensure that any form of local threat or movement involving Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) can be identified and addressed in a comprehensive and coordinated manner.