The first quarter of Terrorism Watch 2024 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from January to March 2024.

The ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been exploited by terrorist groups to provoke their supporters to carry out attacks on western interests around the world. The quote “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them” has been used in Daesh’s global campaign against Jews and their allies since early January 2024.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is believed to be a persistent source of violence, as evidenced by the recent incident in Russia that resulted in numerous casualties. It is crucial to address this issue seriously in order to prevent the emergence of a global trend of hostility, such as Islamophobia and xenophobia, within Russia.

Indonesia’s proactive measures effectively suppressed terrorism in the country during an election period, resulting in no terrorist activity as opposed to past elections. Based on records, there were a minimum of nine instances of terrorist actions directly linked to elections in 2014, and over six occurrences were observed during the 2019 elections.

The prevalence of propaganda regarding terror threats against Malaysia is observed to be on the rise. Pro-Daesh media groups in the Middle East and Indonesia are making efforts to target Malaysian sympathisers and incite them to carry out lone wolf attacks against the assets and representatives of major world powers in Malaysia.

In conclusion, the first quarter of 2024 sees an increase in the global and regional threat that terrorism poses. The threat perception has shifted to incorporate the dissemination of narratives in cyberspace, particularly on social media. Countries, particularly in this region, must take drastic measures to mitigate the issue.

Global Trend

There are significant events in a number of countries around the world during the first quarter of 2024. The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels has shown a significant increase, in addition to the latest trends in European and African countries. There is an increasing menace of terrorism, both on a local and worldwide scale, particularly in the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist organizations, particularly Daesh, persist in utilizing social media as very efficient means for disseminating their ideology. Respective agencies such as Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) need to carry out periodic monitoring of social media content as well as video applications such as YouTube that are capable of threatening national security and can be blocked from being accessed by Malaysians if necessary.

The following are the highlights of  terrorism-related occurrences around the world:

Afghanistan

On 7 Jan 24, the terrorist organisation, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), has acknowledged their culpability for the detonation of a bus in Kabul, resulting in the deaths of two civilians and the injury of 14 more. The Afghanistan Security Forces determined that the explosion was a result of the placement of explosives on a bus in the Dasht-e-Barchi neighbourhood, which is predominantly inhabited by the Shia Hazara community.

ISKP appears to be targeting Shiism-affiliated organisations due to the heretical status of Shiism. Since August 2021, when the Taliban overthrew the government supported by the United States and terminated their insurgency, there has been a significant decline in the frequency of bombings and suicide attacks in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, terrorism continues to be a threat to the nation from a variety of armed organisations, ISKP included. ISKP targets the Shia community residing in Dasht-e-Barchi due to the Taliban’s inadequate security control in the region and the presence of this community. The attack unequivocally demonstrates whether ISKP members were killed or whether an attempt was made to eradicate the Shia ethnic group in Afghanistan through ethnic cleansing. Such conduct is anticipated to be maintained by ISKP as it serves as their method of operation to maintain Afghanistan’s instability and tarnish the reputation of the present Afghan government.

Pakistan

On 8 Jan 24, Mullah Hasan Akhund, the Interim Prime Minister of Afghanistan nominated by the Taliban, has held a meeting with Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the leader of Jamiat Ulama-I-Islam Fazl Party (JUI-F), in an attempt to alleviate the animosity between the two nations. The meeting convened in Kabul was arranged per the Afghanistan government’s request, and the visit of JUI-F was the first since the Taliban assumed control in 2021.

On 8 Jan 24, an explosive device has exploded on the roadside in close proximity to a van transporting police officers who were providing security for workers engaged in an anti-polio vaccination campaign in northern Pakistan. An explosion ensued following the initiation of an anti-polio campaign by the Government of Pakistan in Mahmud, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which was formerly under the control of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The explosion resulted in the demise of six law enforcement officers and inflicted injuries upon 10 additional individuals.

The meeting between the Government of Afghanistan and JUI-F is primarily aimed at engaging in discussions to identify effective solutions for a problem and resolve any misunderstandings between the two neighbouring countries. An ongoing source of conflict between the two nations is the repatriation of over half a million Afghan nationals residing in Pakistan without legal authorization. Afghanistan regarded such approach as ineffective in resolving the situation and instead fostering mistrust.  The Pakistani government is apprehensive about the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan as they seek sanctuary from the Taliban regime. Nevertheless, Afghanistan has protested to this, asserting that it will not permit any terrorist organisation to utilise its territory as a launching pad for assaulting Pakistan. The tension between these two countries is unlikely to prompt any significant measures by the Afghanistan Taliban administration to ensure maximum border control and prevent it. Pakistan’s expulsion of Afghan people as a measure to combat terrorism is viewed as potentially causing humanitarian problems that adversely affect the country. The anti-polio programme frequently faces disruptions from terrorists, particularly the TTP, who perceive this immunisation drive as a Western scheme. This move is likely to be executed based on limited perspective and religious extremism, disregarding the opinions given by the experts of Pakistan. These actions exemplify their defence of the religion and rights of the Pakistani people, as well as their protection of the fundamental values that underpin their existence. Additionally, they are successfully garnering support from local individuals for their organisation, particularly among those who still harbour doubts or reservations regarding the vaccination campaign.

Russia

On 23 Mar 24, a total of 137 individuals lost their lives and 145 others sustained injuries in a terrorist assault that took place at Crocus City Hall in Moscow. The Daesh terrorist group has asserted accountability for the assault in a concise declaration released by the Daesh-associated news agency Amaq on the Telegram platform. The attackers, armed with guns and grenades, deliberately lit the building on fire, resulting in one of Moscow’s most severe acts of terrorism in the past two decades.

The attack occurred within a week after President Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in the election. Evidence indicates that the president’s triumph in the nation is probable to be a contributing element to the occurrence. The Russian Security Forces successfully apprehended four foreign suspects, including individuals from Tajikistan. The probable perpetrator of this incident is ISIS-K (ISIS Khorosan) due to their track record of engaging in acts of terrorism in Russia over the past two years, and their frequent mention in President Putin’s propaganda as a subject of criticism. The ISIS-K terrorist group asserted accountability for the suicide attack at the Russian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan in September 2022. On March 24, the US embassy in Russia cautioned American citizens to steer clear of major gatherings due to credible evidence indicating that ISIS-K had intentions to carry out attacks in Moscow by targeting such events. Russia is anticipated to enhance security measures in order to thwart terrorist strikes. This incident is anticipated to exacerbate the ongoing dispute between Russia and Ukraine, as the Russian President has accused the terrorist of attempting to seek refuge in Ukraine, a claim that Ukraine has refuted as baseless.

Somalia

7 Jan 24, The Somalia National Army (SNA), aided by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and local insurgents, has effectively eliminated 76 individuals affiliated with the Al-Shabaab extremist group. Additionally, numerous others were wounded during a two-day military operation conducted in the Mudug district. One of the casualties included a high-ranking leader of the Al-Shabaab extremist group. The operation conducted by the SNA has specifically targeted the strongholds of Al-Shabaab in central and southern Somalia. It has successfully demolished the bases and vehicles that are owned by the terrorists.

On 3 Feb 24, the SNA The Somalia National Army (SNA), with the assistance of local forces, has initiated a military campaign targeting Al-Shabaab in the village of Shabelow, located in the Mudug district. The conflict commenced when Al-Shabaab initiated an assault on a military installation within the urban area, utilising explosive devices and firearms. The SNA in collaboration with local troops, conducted an operation in which they discovered a cache of weaponry and successfully destroyed four trucks that belonged to the extremist group Al-Shabaab.

The operation has significantly affected the terrorist group Al-Shabaab, particularly in terms of morale, as they suffered substantial losses in terms of members, along with the destruction of their base and major injuries to several of its militants who were engaged in the battle. This indirectly hinders the terrorist group from temporarily executing any acts of terrorism in the region.  The Somali National Army (SNA) has intensified its military campaigns against the extremist organisation Al-Shabaab since July 2022 by closely collaborating with African nations within the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This endeavour demonstrates the efficacy of global collaboration in combating terrorism, as well as the populace’s consciousness in striving for an improved quality of life. However, the strategic placement of military personnel in regulated regions is considered crucial to prevent the reassertion of power by terrorist insurgents. Close collaboration between the government and local insurgents is considered crucial in providing military training and weapons assistance. This partnership helps address the security vacuum in the volatile region.

Turkiye

On 3 Feb 24, a total of 34 foreign individuals affiliated with Daesh were apprehended during the anti-terrorism operation codenamed Cage-35. This operation was conducted simultaneously in seven provinces, namely Istanbul, Kocaeli, Yalova, Kayseri, Bursa, Duzce, and Yozgat. The operation commenced following an incident in which two assailants discharged firearms at Christians inside a church.

On 7 Feb 24, 10 of 15 suspected Daesh members have been apprehended by Turkish Security Forces during an anti-terrorism operation in three provinces centred on Istanbul. The operation is executed in a total of 23 distinct locations, eight districts in Istanbul, and one each in the provinces of Kocaeli and Yalova.

Since June 2023, Turkish officials have arrested 2086 individuals believed to be associated with the Daesh terrorist organisation. Recently, Turkish officials apprehended 25 individuals who are believed to have committed the act of shooting a man during a religious gathering in a church. The terrorist organisation known as Daesh has acknowledged that they are responsible for the attack. They have stated that the motive behind the attack was in accordance with the directives issued by Daesh authorities to specifically target individuals who identify as Jews and Christians. The ongoing war in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine is a significant contributing element to the emergence of the spirit of jihad among the adherents of the terrorist group. Turkiye is anticipated to persistently escalate extensive efforts to counteract the ideology and subsequent activities of terrorist organisations within the country, with the aim of managing security challenges. Daesh is currently facing significant challenges due to targeted actions against it, including the apprehension and elimination of several members by Turkish authorities. The organisation has the ability to revive itself by employing innovative strategies to disseminate its ideas and attract prospective members.

Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia

Indonesia

On 9 Jan 24, Two emerging media conglomerates in Indonesia, Al-Qanishun and Al-Qosd, have recently begun translating posters and remarks from Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari, the spokesperson for Daesh, with regards to the “And Kill Them Whenever You Find Them” campaign. These two Indonesian media outlets that support Daesh also translated posters created by Daesh’s worldwide media, such as Hadm Al-Aswar and Tala’ia al-Ansar Production, into the Indonesian language.

On 27 Jan 24, A total of 10 individuals suspected of being members of the Jamaah Islamiyah terrorist organisation have been apprehended in various locations around Central Java, Indonesia. The suspected terrorist is accused of participating in giving operational assistance to the JI group, which includes aiding their actions, harbouring sought or fugitive members, and soliciting donations. Furthermore, it is believed that they also offer logistical support by gathering firearms or sharp weapons to enhance the capabilities and skills of JI members.

The Pro Daesh media organisation in Indonesia is likely to continue prioritising their campaign with the motto “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them.” The proliferation of Pro Daesh media groups is on the rise due to the campaign’s perceived ability to sway Daesh supporters across Southeast Asia. Concentrating on a “easy target” can have adverse consequences if the phone is answered by a supporter of Daesh from Malaysia. Terrorist groups are said to be targeting Indonesia’s 2024 General Election as an opportunity to disseminate extremist and radical ideology among the people. Based on records, there were a minimum of nine instances of terrorist actions directly linked to elections in 2014, and over six occurrences were observed during the 2019 elections. The Indonesia Security Forces’ proactive measure of detaining members of terrorist groups was deemed successful in preventing any disruptions during this year’s election, which occurred on February 14th.

The Philippines

On 3 Jan 24, Two intelligence operatives from the 51st Infantry Battalion (51IB) of the Army were fatally attacked in an ambush that took place in the town of Lininding, Munai, Lanao del Norte, Philippines. During the event, the three military intelligence agents were returning to the camp after successfully carrying out an intelligence operation in the neighbouring region when they were assaulted by unidentified armed individuals. At the scene, two out of the three agents, Raul Pabuaya and Murphy Delos Santos, were fatally wounded, while another member, Joenipher, successfully evaded the attack.

On 8 Dec, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) killed at least nine members of Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) in air and ground offensives carried out by the military. DI is the local and Arabic name for ISIS, the Middle Eastern terror group. DI had blamed the MILF for the military’s offensives against the Islamic State-aligned group which started after a confirmation that the group was recruiting people in Sitio Wata in Pagalungan.

On 10 Mar 24, Cpl Ricky Mendoza Gomez, a police intelligence officer stationed in Carmen, Cotabato province, was fatally assaulted in Santos City. An unidentified individual shot a participant of the advanced police intelligence networking proficiency training in the head and upper body using an M16 firearm when the victim was crossing the road in Barangay Sinawal. Members have already demonstrated exceptional accomplishments in apprehending numerous wanted terrorists among the ranks of the Dawlah Islamiya and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), who were implicated in lethal terrorist assaults.

The attack was believed to be connected to the retaliatory strike against the security operation carried out by the Philippine Security Forces, which resulted in the elimination of 12 members of the DI terrorist group on December 23. The Philippine Security forces are actively engaged in operations to apprehend all DI terrorists in the Philippines and ensure that their activities are entirely eradicated. The Philippine Security Forces have previously conducted many offensives against terrorist targets associated with Daesh through a Focused Military Operation (FMO) in order to prevent and eradicate the remaining militants in the country. During this period, multiple operations were conducted in the city of Lanao, which is considered a stronghold of the DI-Maute group. Specifically, these actions were place in Pantao Ragat, Poona Plagapo, and Munai. The offensive operation conducted to eradicate the DI network, which continues to pose a security risk in Maguindanao, is regarded as a crucial endeavour to prevent the DI’s retaliatory plan against the Philippine Security Forces. FMO is anticipated to persistently exert a significant influence on the DI group, which is progressively seeing a decline in backing from local people and sympathisers.

Malaysia

The national level of terrorist threat is now being effectively managed. The cumulative number of apprehensions in the nation pertaining to persons associated with Daesh terrorist and militant networks from 2013 to the present stands at around 562, comprising 196 non-nationals and 366 domestic residents.

On 27 Jan 24, Two Malaysian individuals who admitted to being involved in the terrorist explosions that resulted in the deaths of 202 individuals in Bali, Indonesia in 2002 have been given an extra five-year prison sentence. Earlier, the United States military court in Guantanamo convicted the two accused, identified as Farik Amin, 48, and Nazir Lep, 47, to a 23-year prison term. US military judge Lt. Col. Wesley A Braun has determined that the suspect may be released within five years due to the prosecutor’s incompetence in failing to meet a court deadline for providing evidence to the defence attorney during case preparation.

On 20 Feb 24, The Telegram group Usud Afriqiyah recently shared a collection of posters created by the Al Aan Foundation, a media entity associated with the Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP). The collection is titled “Just Terror Tactic“. A billboard has depicted a plan to launch an assault on three embassies in Malaysia: the United States, Russian, and Chinese embassies. Furthermore, this poster has also endorsed the campaign “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them“.

On 23 Mar 24, The propaganda group of the Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP), known as the Al Aan Foundation, has just shared a warning poster indicating their intention to target the Tokyo Skytree in Japan and the Merdeka 118 Tower in Malaysia for a future attack. The image submitted features the backdrop of the Merdeka 118 Tower in Malaysia, accompanied by the Daesh flag and the message “We Will Arrive on Your Doorstep.” Therefore, continue to remain patient. We are also eagerly awaiting with you! The image in the background of the Tokyo Skytree features the flag of Daesh, along with a phrase printed in Japanese that translates to “Come the Army that brings the truth“.

Following the sentence by US government, both Malaysian individuals will participate in a deradicalization programme administered by the Malaysian government and will be subject to lifelong surveillance by national security officials. This demonstrates the Malaysian government’s serious approach in addressing the issue of terrorism, serving as a model and a cautionary tale for fellow Malaysians to resist being swayed by terrorist objectives and propaganda. The Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF), in conjunction with the Royal Malaysian Police, must persist in shouldering the significant duty of preventing any new threats that may arise from this recent development, particularly in suppressing terrorist ideology among uniformed members. Moreover, religious institutions, which possess complete authority in Islamic matters, play a crucial role in addressing aspects of religious extremism. In terms of the overall role of the Malaysian Armed Forces, the Religious Corps of the MAF (KAGAT) is perceived as having the capacity to contribute to the planning of religious and spiritual activities. This includes initiatives like the Task Force PERISAI AKIDAH, which was previously implemented to provide education and clarification on the authentic Ahli Sunnah beliefs.

This particular instance of Daesh propaganda relating to Malaysia marks the first occurrence since 27 Feb 23, in which a pro-Daesh media unit has issued a poster targeting Malaysia. The billboard aims to urge Daesh supporters to attack Malaysia by featuring an image of the Petronas Twin Towers. An analysis of telegraph groups that disseminate information revealed that the majority of subscribers, who are members of these groups, are presumed to be from nations in the Middle East. Terrorist organisations are likely to manipulate the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict to incite their followers into launching attacks on Western targets globally. The phrase “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them” has been employed by Daesh in their worldwide campaign targeting Jews and their supporters since the beginning of January 2024. Daesh’s narrative of their war, which is disseminated on social media by their networks and supporters, continues to have an impact on Muslims, particularly in the virtual realm. Hence, it is imperative to enhance surveillance conducted by the authorities, particularly the Malaysian Communications Multimedia Commission (MCMC), in cooperation with the RMP and other relevant security agencies, to effectively restrict public access to radical extremist websites that disseminate Daesh narratives within Malaysia. In Malaysia, Daesh’s impact is relatively insignificant compared to other nations in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the current reception of Daesh’s campaign in Malaysia is not favourable, which can be attributed to the implementation of multiple awareness initiatives by different government ministries. However, despite this, the danger is still classified as high risk and surveillance of terrorism threat indicators continues intermittently.

Conclusion

The global and regional levels have seen a rise in incidences of terrorism during the first quarter of 2024, indicating a growing presence of extremism, radicalism, and terrorism. Countries like Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, Somalia, and Turkiye face persistent terrorism threats due to ongoing instability. Additionally, terrorist groups exploit Israel’s attacks on Palestine to incite lone wolf attacks, using the slogan “Kill Them Wherever You Find Them.” The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is believed to be a persistent source of violence, as evidenced by the recent incident in Russia that resulted in numerous casualties. It is crucial to address this issue seriously in order to prevent the emergence of a global trend of hostility, such as Islamophobia and xenophobia, within Russia. Turkiye remains proactive in countering terrorist threats by actively carrying out security operations along the Turkiye-Iraq-Syria border. The rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are rooted in the activities of the TTP terrorist group, which exploits the vulnerabilities in border security measures of both nations. Pakistan’s decision to repatriate over 500,000 undocumented Afghan residents is not perceived as a viable solution, as it fosters distrust and exacerbates humanitarian concerns. This action has a detrimental effect on the country, which is already grappling with challenges in its recently established government.

The rising threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia demonstrates that Indonesia’s proactive measures effectively suppressed terrorism in the country during an election period, resulting in no terrorist activity as opposed to past elections. Despite an increase in social media activity by pro-Deash media, particularly leading up to the election date and in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it has been discovered that the arrest of terrorist suspects has effectively halted the terrorist group’s plans and instilled fear among members of other terrorist groups. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the government is actively implementing Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) programmes, such as the Enhanced – Comprehensive Local Integration Programme (E-CLIP), to prevent the occurrence of terrorism. The Philippines implemented a more aggressive strategy known as Focused Military Operations (FMO) to suppress terrorist activities. This method effectively dismantled the DI-maguid group and resulted in the elimination of numerous high-ranking leaders from the DI, BIFF, and KAS terrorist organisations.

The prevalence of propaganda regarding terror threats against Malaysia is observed to be on the rise. Pro-Daesh media groups in the Middle East and Indonesia are making efforts to target Malaysian sympathisers and incite them to carry out lone wolf attacks against the assets and representatives of major world powers in Malaysia. The act of provocation is likely motivated by the limited influence of Daesh in Malaysia, relative to other Southeast Asian countries. They aim to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, perceiving Malaysia as a vocal advocate for the rights of the Palestinian people. Daesh supporters persist in using these tactics as their modus operandi to pique the curiosity of Malaysians, who are increasingly cognizant of the current terrorism crisis.

In conclusion, the global and regional threat of terrorism is increasing as a result of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Daesh’s campaign titled “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them”. Terrorist organisations persistently employ social media platforms as a fundamental tool to disseminate their ideology and enlist individuals to execute acts of terrorism independently. Each incidence influences the actions of specific groups to perpetrate more acts in different locations, motivated by the same feelings of hatred based on Islamophobia and xenophobia. These occurrences will continue to happen as long as the involved parties are influenced by religious sensitivity and racial feeling. If the countries experiencing this crisis do not handle it wisely through CVE awareness programmes, the situation would deteriorate. In Malaysia, it is imperative for the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (SKMM) and the Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) to collaborate closely in order to effectively monitor and prohibit the dissemination of any violent content within the country. This proactive approach is crucial in preventing any untoward situations from occurring. The dissemination of Daesh propaganda in Southeast Asia should not be underestimated, as the country’s potential terrorist threat level is currently moderate / Code Blue and the risk of terrorist acts is assessed as “possible”.

The fourth quarter of Terrorism Watch 2023 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from October to December 2023.

Growing concern in European nations, specifically France and Belgium, as a result of the spillover effect from Israel’s attack on Palestine, which was orchestrated by terrorist organisations.

The apprehension of ARSA’s primary leader is thought to have considerably diminished the group’s terrorist operations in the Cox’s Bazar camp. However, it may also serve as a motivating factor for ARSA members to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, particularly Malaysia, thereby heightening the potential for national security risks.

The subsequent advancement of the terrorist menace in Southeast Asia demonstrates the proactive actions undertaken by governments with significant terrorist activity, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which have effectively diminished the terrorism danger in those countries.

There is an observable rise in political and religious extremism, particularly following GE 15 with some organisations employ social media manipulation to further their own interests.

In conclusion, the fourth quarter of 2023 sees an increase in the global and regional threat that terrorism poses. The threat perception has shifted to incorporate the dissemination of narratives in cyberspace, particularly on social media.

Global Trend

There are significant events in a number of countries around the world during the fourth quarter of 2023. The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels has shown a significant increase, in addition to the latest trends in European and African countries. There is an increasing menace of terrorism, both on a local and worldwide scale, particularly in the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist organisations, particularly Daesh, persist in utilising social media and chat rooms as very efficient means for disseminating their ideology. Respective agencies such as Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) need to carry out periodic monitoring of social media content as well as video applications such as YouTube that are capable of threatening national security and can be blocked from being accessed by Malaysians if necessary.

The following are the highlights of  terrorism-related occurrences around the world:

Bangladesh

On 16 Oct 23, Bangladesh’s elite security force Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) has arrested the head of the killer squad of the Rohingya militant outfit, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), believed to be directly involved in two high-profile murders in recent years. in 2021. ARSA leader, Samiuddin was arrested during a raid in the Kutupalong refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar. Samiuddin was wanted for the murder of Mohibullah, the chairman of the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, in 2021 and the killing of a Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) officer on 14 Nov 2022.

On 10 Dec 23, RapidAction Battalion(RAB) has conducted numerous raids in Ashulia, Savar, Manikganj, Gazipur dan Mymensingh and arrested six operatives of Ansar al-Islam. Arrestees were identified as Abdur Razzak @ Ishak @ Saiba, 41, Shariful Islam @ Murad, 31, Rahman @ Usaiman, 27, Muhammad Zakaria @ Abar, 24, Al Amin @ Robin @ Samura, 24, dan Abu Jar Maruf, 18.  RAB personnel recovered a large number of books on extremism from their possession.

Since January of this year, Bangladeshi officials have detained 72 members of the terrorist group ARSA as part of a vigorous crackdown. They suspect that ARSA was responsible for the killings of BAF personnel. Given the ARSA’s involvement in acts of terrorism and crime within the camp, it is thought that the security operation successfully dismantled the ARSA network, namely in Cox’s Bazar. The violent actions carried out by ARSA have been widely regarded as a significant catalyst for the displacement of Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar. Consequently, surrounding nations have intensified their efforts to enhance border security measures in order to prevent the entry of Rohingya refugees into their respective territories. Simultaneously, a large-scale terrorist strike in Bangladesh was averted by the apprehension of individuals affiliated with the Ansar Al Islam Group. These individuals are believed to have completed military training and received bomb-making instruction in India, as well as training from Afghanistan. This group is said to be distributing several publications that promote extremism, the oppression of Muslims, as well as films and lectures, in an effort to gain adherents. The arrest of its members is likely to have a significant impact on the Ansar Al Islam group, as the bulk of those imprisoned hold key positions as finance officials, recruitment coordinators, and instructors for new recruits.

Belgium

On 16 Oct 23, Belgian police have shot dead a man suspected of killing two Swedish nationals and injuring a third person in a gun attack condemned by the country’s leader as “terrorist madness”. The accused, a 45-year-old Tunisian national, died in hospital after being shot in the chest. The suspect’s death comes after a man who identified himself as a member of Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack in a video posted online. The threat alert in Brussels was raised to its top level of four, meaning a “threat is extremely serious”. It was previously at level two, indicating an average threat.

The occurrence of this terrorist assault, supported by the extremist organisation Daesh, is not unprecedented in Belgium. The most recent example was documented in November 2022, when a terrorist associated with the Daesh organisation lethally stabbed a Belgian police officer. This assault seems to specifically target individuals of Swedish nationality, maybe due to their perceived association with the burning of the Quran a few months before by an Iraqi refugee. The Israeli-Palestinian instability is regarded as a contributing element in this incident, since terrorist organisations utilise it as a pretext to carry out their activities. The aforementioned tendency demonstrates the importance of addressing the Israel-Palestine conflict in order to prevent the rise of Islamophobia as a prominent issue in Europe, which might potentially lead to acts of violence. Through the analysis of violent events in Europe, such as the killing of Samuel Paty in France on October 16th and the assault on the Notre-Dame de Nice church in France on October 29th, proponents of Daesh have clearly shown that there is a possibility for the persistence of the phenomenon and worldwide trend known as the village effect. Each incidence, fuelled by hostile feelings such as xenophobia and Islamophobia, prompts a group of people to initiate an assault. These occurrences will continue to occur as long as there are those who use religious sensitivity and racial prejudice for their own purposes.

Pakistan

On 3 Dec 23, at least eight people were killed and 26 others injured when terrorists opened fire on a passenger bus in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s Gilgit Baltistan region. The bus was travelling from Gilgit to Rawalpindi when terrorists opened indiscriminate fire at around 6.30 pm in Chilas. Two army soldiers, who were in the bus, were also among the dead and one personnel of the Special Protection Unit was injured in the attack.

On 12 Dec 23, at least 23 soldiers have been killed and dozens injured in Pakistan after militants attacked a police compound. The attack took place in the early hours when a vehicle containing explosives rammed into the building in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, near the Afghan border. A militant group affiliated to the Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack. The compound was being used as a base camp for the Pakistani army.

The frequency of terrorist strikes in Pakistan has increased in recent years. In August 2023, Pakistan had a higher number of terrorist attacks than in any month in the past nine years. Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, the ceasefire between Pakistan’s security forces and the terrorist group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has ended. This has led to a rise in terrorist attacks targeting both civilians and security forces in the period leading up to the expected February 2024 elections in the country. This variable signifies that the TP is the predominant catalyst for the escalation of terrorist activities in Pakistan. A recently formed extremist group known as TJP, suspected to have joined forces with the TTP, poses an additional danger to Pakistan. Based on the evidence, TPJ has been implicated in several recent assaults aimed against prominent figures in the nation, resulting in the deaths of 12 Pakistani security personnel and the destruction of three aircraft. The operation is believed to have been orchestrated in a Taliban-controlled area of Afghanistan, taking into account the terrorist group’s tactics in the region next to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Islamabad is anticipated to exert pressure on Kabul to promptly address the issue of terrorists and prevent the ongoing use of Afghan land for launching assaults against Pakistan. In the absence of cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the issue of border security between them is seen unsolvable, allowing terrorist organisations to use this situation to strategically plan and execute acts of terrorism in the region. Hence, the government urges France SF to enhance security measures nationwide and heighten vigilance in all public spaces, especially educational institutions.

France

On 14 Oct 23, a teacher has been killed and two other people critically injured in a stabbing at a school in Arras, northern France. The suspected attacker, who has been arrested, was on a watchlist of people known to be a security risk in connection with radical Islamism. Local media reported that he was a former pupil at the Gambetta-Carnot school. Due to this incident, France has raised its threat alert to the highest level.

Following Israel’s assault on Hamas, the French Special Forces have apprehended 12 radicals in neighbouring vicinity including educational institutions and places of worship, as a direct consequence of the strike. Due to the increasing anti-Semitic sentiment and the presence of the largest Muslim population in Western Europe and the third-largest Jewish population globally (after Israel and the US), it is anticipated that France will continue to enforce strict security measures, including the prohibition of pro-Palestinian protests. Evidence and surveillance suggest that school assaults are exceedingly rare in France.

Somalia

On 3 Dec 23, The Somali National Army (SNA) killed 60 al-Shabab militants and wounded several others in a joint operation near Halgan town in central Somalia. The operation targeted al-Shabab militants and their commanders who were re-grouping to attack areas in central Somalia. The Somali government forces backed by the African Union Mission in Somalia drove al-Shabab out of Mogadishu in 2011, but the terrorist group is still capable of conducting attacks, targeting government installations, hotels, restaurants and public places.

On 10 Dec 23, six people were killed in an attack by the known-terrorist organisation, Al-Shabaab in Galgadud. One of them was known as Abdullahi Shamley, an influential leader of the local Macawisley militant group.

The ongoing military assault by Somalia’s Special Forces against the Al-Shabab terrorist group has effectively weakened the organisation, compelling them to abandon their base. Furthermore, the local population’s cooperation with the government in suppressing terrorist attacks by groups such as Al-Shabaab is attributed to the resolute leadership of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has declared a comprehensive war against the terrorist organisation. This has contributed to the government’s ability to successfully persuade the local population to support its endeavours. This alliance is expected to spearhead military operations against terrorist organisations and expedite the process of eradicating Al-Shabaab in the region. Nevertheless, certain regions have seen a deficiency in security oversight subsequent to the departure of the Somali Federal forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) from those areas.Al-Shabaab is exploiting the opportunity to launch attacks on local militants and civilians, especially in districts that were formerly their strongholds, while also trying to regain control of their land. The absence of security forces in the region, along with the limited resources and capabilities of local militants, has led to a poor perception of Somalia’s SF pullout. Terrorist operations are expected to continue until the government offers military assistance to supervise and control the situation in the region in response to Al-Shabaab strikes.

Turkiye

On 1 Oct 23, At least one person was killed and two others were injured in a bombing attack outside Turkiye’s Ministry of Home Affairs building in Ankara. Two attackers murdered a civilian and stole his vehicle in the country’s capital ahead of the opening of parliament. Two police officers reportedly received non-life-threatening. The ministry confirmed at least one of the two attackers is a member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK. The second attacker has yet to be identified.

On 11 Dec 23, Turkish security forces carried out air operations in northern Iraq, destroying 13 terror targets and neutralizing many senior terrorists. The operations were carried out in the Gara, Metina, Hakurk and Qandil regions to eliminate terrorist attacks against Türkiye and its security forces from northern Iraq by neutralizing members of the PKK terror group and other terrorist elements and to ensure border security in line with the self-defense rights.

It is commonly acknowledged that Turkiye, US and Europe define the PKK as a terrorist organisation comprised of Kurdish fanatics. The suicide assault took place shortly before the parliament resumed its activities after the summer recess, leading to allegations that the PKK had intentionally planned to target the parliament’s reopening and the ministry buildings. The Turkish government has undertaken many counterterrorism operations in recent years, aiming to eradicate the terrorist organisation both within its own borders and on a worldwide scale, including operations performed over the border into Syria. Turkiye has established many military outposts in Iraqi Kurdistan with the objective of neutralising the terrorist organisation. Furthermore, in order to ensure regional tranquilly and security, Turkey maintains strong connections with the Kurdish authorities in Iraq. Based on the data, the primary stronghold of the PKK terrorist organisation is located in Northern Iraq. From 2018 to June 2023, the Special Forces of Turkey carried out a minimum of 6,000 airstrikes predominantly targeting Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq. Following the commencement of “Operation Claw-Lock” in April of the previous year, which aimed to combat the PKK terrorist organisation in the northern area of Iraq next to the Turkish border, the Turkish Special Forces have escalated their airstrikes on PKK terrorist units. This operation has effectively removed important terrorist targets by preemptive and well-coordinated measures, therefore also impairing the capabilities of the PKK group. To mitigate the risk of terrorism in Turkey, the Turkish Special Forces will continue to carry out Claw-Lock operations in the next months, in accordance with prevailing operational patterns.

Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia

Indonesia

On 23 Oct 23, The Indonesian police’s counterterrorism squad, arrested nine people on suspicion of terrorism activities in three separate operations. Five suspects were arrested in South Sumatra, who had alleged ties with home-grown extremist group Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), which is linked to the Daesh terror group. A day later, DENSUS 88 officers arrested one suspect in West Kalimantan and three others in West Nusa Tenggara, who were affiliated with home-grown extremist group, Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), also linked to the Daesh group. JAD is responsible for a string of attacks in the country, including a suicide bombing at a cathedral in Makassar City on Sulawesi Island in March last year, and several suicide bombings at churches in East Java in 2018, which killed a dozen people. The group was declared an illegal organisation in 2018.

On 28 Oct 23,  Indonesian police has arrested at least 27 suspected militants believed to have links to banned extremist groups, in a nationwide crackdown as the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country gears up for elections in 2024. DENSUS 88 conducted the arrests on Friday in Jakarta, West Java and Central Sulawesi provinces. Most of the arrested are suspected of being members of a homegrown militant outfit affiliated with the Islamic State group known as Jemmaah Anshorut Daulah or JAD.

The utilisation of various propaganda techniques suggests a rise in the threat of terrorism in Indonesia. It is unsurprising considering Israel’s ongoing aggression towards the Palestinian population and its present preparations for the forthcoming presidential election, slated for February 2024. It is expected that terrorist organisations would continue to use these two tragedies to gain support and inspire lone wolf strikes in Indonesia.

The Philippines

On 3 Dec 23, at least four people were killed by the explosion, including three women, and 50 others were brought to two hospitals for treatment of mostly minor injuries. Philippine forces were on high alert during a Catholic mass in a university gymnasium in the south of the country, an attack the authorities called Islamist terrorism. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack. The group wrote on Telegram that its members detonated a bomb in the gathering.

On 8 Dec, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) killed at least nine members of Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) in air and ground offensives carried out by the military. DI is the local and Arabic name for ISIS, the Middle Eastern terror group. DI had blamed the MILF for the military’s offensives against the Islamic State-aligned group which started after a confirmation that the group was recruiting people in Sitio Wata in Pagalungan.

The elimination of eleven suspected terrorists in a special forces operation that took place in December in the town of Datu Hoffer in the southern province of Maguindanao is believed to be connected to the bombing incident. The deceased individuals were members of the Maute terrorist organisation, a branch of the DI, which maintains connections with Daesh. The Philippine government continues to reap advantages from the Focused Military Operation (FMO) implemented by its own administration. The aggressive effort conducted to eliminate the DI network, which remains a security risk in Maguindanao, is considered a crucial measure to prevent the DI from retaliating against the Philippines forces, as they did in previous terrorist attacks. This incident is expected to greatly impact the DI organisation, since they are seeing a decline in supporters and local residents. However, it is expected that the Philippine security forces would implement stricter safety measures in order to prevent future bombings of innocent sites.

Malaysia

The national threat on terrorism is currently moderate. Since 2013, there have been 562 arrests in the nation of people affiliated with terrorist groups and militant networks, comprising 196 foreigners and 366 locals.

On 1 Nov, The Eastern Sabah Security Command (ESSCOM) will release their latest list of 13 individuals wanted by authorities for links to militant activities. A study is underway and both the police’s Special Branch and ESSCOM play a role in monitoring the movements of those on the list. Most of the individuals on the list were now outside the Eastern Sabah Safety Zone (ESS Zone).

On 4 Dec 23, a key Abu Sayyaf bomb maker, who was on the Eastern Sabah Security Command’s (ESSCOM) wanted list and linked to several kidnap cases in Sabah waters, was killed by Philippine security forces. The notorious Abu Sayyaf extremist, Mundi Sawadjaan, was also behind the 2020 twin suicide blasts on Jolo island in southwest Philippines. He was shot dead during a firefight in Basilan province.

On 28 Nov, the police arrested an individual who offered RM5 million for a death threat on the Prime Minister, YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The offer was made by the 34-year-old via his personal account @jaiadani89 on the TikTok social page. the case was being investigated under Section 507 Penal Code and Section 233 Communication and Multimedia Act 1998. Two days later, he has been granted police bail as the investigation against him has been completed.

ESSCOM has apprehended five individuals in Sabah this year suspected of involvement in terrorist activities. The absence of kidnappings since January 2020 indicates a reduction in terrorist threats and cross-border crimes. The offensive operation aimed at dismantling the DI network is crucial to prevent retaliation against the Philippines SF. ESSCOM needs to enhance operations, enforcement, and intelligence gathering to prevent future bombings. They must also ensure no individuals on the list have successfully entered the nation and take an active stance against terrorist recruitment or threats. ESSCOM must enhance operations, enforcement, and information collection to maintain security in the ESS Zone, preventing potential compromises and adopting a proactive stance against terrorist organizations enlisting locals with terrorist ideologies or generating threats in the East Coast region.

Mundi Sawagjaan’s death has impacted ASG, leading to a significant number of members surrendering and embracing the Enhanced – Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP). With the group’s declining strength and lack of threat in Sulu, it is expected to be eradicated within a defined timeframe. Mundi Sawagjaan is suspected of orchestrating two major attacks in Jolo, Sulu. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the suspect’s nephew is Hatib Hajan Sawdjaan, who holds the position of commander for Daesh in the Philippines and is a prominent leader located in Sulu. In addition to his uncle, Sawadjaan’s family has numerous relatives who are affiliated with the KAS, including his cousin Arsibar Sawadjaan, brother Madsmar Sawadjaan, and brother Mannul Sawadjaan, all of whom perished in a prior conflict with the Philippine forces.

The prevalence of extremist tendencies in politics and religion is notably growing, particularly in the aftermath of GE 15. A multitude of individuals were apprehended for endeavouring to jeopardize the security and steadfastness of the nation as a result of their ideological and political zealotry. This type of danger arises from substantial ideological disputes, a dearth of contextual understanding on the matter, and a proclivity to accept internet information without conducting thorough study. Politicians and social media influencers are widely acknowledged to exert significant impact on society, particularly in relation to sensitive topics such as race, religion, and royalty. Most elected officials and politicians deliberately disseminate inaccurate information about their adversaries to further their own interests. This might potentially foster radical cognitive processes, an ideology characterized by animosity, and the subsequent formation of individuals with extreme tendencies. Videos and other items that have the capacity to jeopardize national unity should be prohibited, and individuals who disseminate such material should face legal consequences to increase public consciousness. The current legal approach is essential due to the potential of religious and racial concerns to jeopardize the peace and security of the country if left unaddressed.

Conclusion

Terrorism incidents at the global and regional level still show a significant increase for the period of the Fourth Quarter of 2023 in line with the opening of the international borders. Globally, Terrorism continues to pose a significant threat in countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Somalia, and Turkey due to ongoing instability. Additionally, there is a growing concern in European nations, specifically France and Belgium, as a result of the spillover effect from Israel’s attack on Palestine, which was orchestrated by terrorist organisations. The ongoing developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are exacerbating the threat of terrorism in Europe. It is imperative to implement stringent measures to prevent Europe from succumbing to the repercussions of the global interconnectedness. Following any occurrence that incites a group of individuals to carry out an assault, organised expressions of xenophobia and Islamophobia, which are rooted in hatred, are frequently observed. Somalia, Nigeria, and Turkey are considered proactive and pre-emptive in addressing the threat of terrorism during the fourth quarter of this year. With the help of ATMIS, security forces have successfully regained control over a substantial part of the land that was previously under the control of Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Nevertheless, should ATMIS reduce its military personnel by 3,000 by the conclusion of this year, Somalia would inevitably face specific difficulties. There is an anticipation of an increase in terrorist attacks in Somalia due to the aggressive targeting by Al-Shabaab in places with inadequate protection. The apprehension of ARSA’s primary leader is thought to have considerably diminished the group’s terrorist operations in the Cox’s Bazar camp. However, it may also serve as a motivating factor for ARSA members to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, particularly Malaysia, thereby heightening the potential for national security risks.

The subsequent advancement of the terrorist menace in Southeast Asia demonstrates the proactive actions undertaken by governments with significant terrorist activity, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which have effectively diminished the terrorism danger in those countries. In addition, neighbouring countries in the area are continuously adopting non-confrontational strategies by implementing programmes such as the Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) programme, with the objective of averting the spread of violent extremism. An essential measure in averting untoward occurrences, particularly during Indonesia’s preparatory stage for the next Presidential Election, is the effective performance of Indonesian security forces in detecting and apprehending many alleged terrorist factions.Statistical data indicates an increase in terrorist incidents in Indonesia coinciding with the period of elections. Nevertheless, the ongoing situation in the southern Philippines illustrates that the Philippine government is utilising a combination of a stringent strategy, known as FMO, and a more lenient approach, referred to as E-CLIP, to counteract terrorist activities. Due to the use of these two strategies, several members of terrorist groups have managed to successfully disengage from their organisations and transition into a more promising existence. In order to thwart the efforts of terrorist organisations in the southern Philippines, it is expected that the Philippine Special Forces would increase its offensive operations using the Focused Military Operations strategy, as long as there are still some terrorists adhering to their ideology.

Individual updates must exhibit ESSCOM’s ongoing dedication to aiding in the detection of any indications related to terrorist groups’ operations in the Malaysian-Philippine regions, in accordance with the organization’s original objectives of protecting the security of ESSZONE community members. There is an observable rise in political and religious extremism, particularly following GE 15. Some organisations employ social media manipulation to further their own interests, therefore fostering extreme ideologies and a culture of animosity that ultimately leads to extremism. Under the existing legislation, both the individuals responsible for inciting and the dissemination of films are subject to arrest, while also being subjected to certain limitations. Immediate action must be taken to prohibit any content that has the potential to jeopardise national cohesion.

In a nutshell, there is an increasing menace of terrorism, both on a local and worldwide scale, particularly in the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist organisations, particularly Daesh, persist in utilising social media and chat rooms as very efficient means for disseminating their ideology. Moreover, considering the increasing prevalence of solitary acts of violence perpetrated by adolescents in several countries, notably in Europe, the propagation of violent ideologies via online gaming platforms like Roblox remains a source of worry. In order to avoid the dissemination of unauthorised occurrences, it is imperative for MCMC and RMP to consistently monitor and curb the proliferation of any violent material within Malaysia. Video apps such as Facebook, Telegram, YouTube, and other chatroom platforms are more accessible for connecting with sympathisers. According to statistics, these platforms are responsible for 80 percent of the dissemination of terrorist ideology and propaganda.

In the Fourth Quarter, there has been a noticeable inclination towards utilising Bahasa Malaysia to disseminate ideals originating from Indonesia, while creating the perception that Malaysians endorse them. The problem is seen as the tactic employed by Daesh sympathisers to captivate the attention of Malaysians, who are believed to be growing more cognizant of the present situation of terrorism. The degree of possible terrorism threat in Southeast Asia is now assessed as moderate, or Code Blue, with a probable chance of terrorist strikes. Therefore, it is crucial to avoid disregarding the dissemination of Daesh propaganda in the region.