The first quarter of Terrorism Watch 2024 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from January to March 2024.

The ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been exploited by terrorist groups to provoke their supporters to carry out attacks on western interests around the world. The quote “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them” has been used in Daesh’s global campaign against Jews and their allies since early January 2024.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is believed to be a persistent source of violence, as evidenced by the recent incident in Russia that resulted in numerous casualties. It is crucial to address this issue seriously in order to prevent the emergence of a global trend of hostility, such as Islamophobia and xenophobia, within Russia.

Indonesia’s proactive measures effectively suppressed terrorism in the country during an election period, resulting in no terrorist activity as opposed to past elections. Based on records, there were a minimum of nine instances of terrorist actions directly linked to elections in 2014, and over six occurrences were observed during the 2019 elections.

The prevalence of propaganda regarding terror threats against Malaysia is observed to be on the rise. Pro-Daesh media groups in the Middle East and Indonesia are making efforts to target Malaysian sympathisers and incite them to carry out lone wolf attacks against the assets and representatives of major world powers in Malaysia.

In conclusion, the first quarter of 2024 sees an increase in the global and regional threat that terrorism poses. The threat perception has shifted to incorporate the dissemination of narratives in cyberspace, particularly on social media. Countries, particularly in this region, must take drastic measures to mitigate the issue.

Global Trend

There are significant events in a number of countries around the world during the first quarter of 2024. The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels has shown a significant increase, in addition to the latest trends in European and African countries. There is an increasing menace of terrorism, both on a local and worldwide scale, particularly in the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist organizations, particularly Daesh, persist in utilizing social media as very efficient means for disseminating their ideology. Respective agencies such as Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) need to carry out periodic monitoring of social media content as well as video applications such as YouTube that are capable of threatening national security and can be blocked from being accessed by Malaysians if necessary.

The following are the highlights of  terrorism-related occurrences around the world:

Afghanistan

On 7 Jan 24, the terrorist organisation, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), has acknowledged their culpability for the detonation of a bus in Kabul, resulting in the deaths of two civilians and the injury of 14 more. The Afghanistan Security Forces determined that the explosion was a result of the placement of explosives on a bus in the Dasht-e-Barchi neighbourhood, which is predominantly inhabited by the Shia Hazara community.

ISKP appears to be targeting Shiism-affiliated organisations due to the heretical status of Shiism. Since August 2021, when the Taliban overthrew the government supported by the United States and terminated their insurgency, there has been a significant decline in the frequency of bombings and suicide attacks in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, terrorism continues to be a threat to the nation from a variety of armed organisations, ISKP included. ISKP targets the Shia community residing in Dasht-e-Barchi due to the Taliban’s inadequate security control in the region and the presence of this community. The attack unequivocally demonstrates whether ISKP members were killed or whether an attempt was made to eradicate the Shia ethnic group in Afghanistan through ethnic cleansing. Such conduct is anticipated to be maintained by ISKP as it serves as their method of operation to maintain Afghanistan’s instability and tarnish the reputation of the present Afghan government.

Pakistan

On 8 Jan 24, Mullah Hasan Akhund, the Interim Prime Minister of Afghanistan nominated by the Taliban, has held a meeting with Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the leader of Jamiat Ulama-I-Islam Fazl Party (JUI-F), in an attempt to alleviate the animosity between the two nations. The meeting convened in Kabul was arranged per the Afghanistan government’s request, and the visit of JUI-F was the first since the Taliban assumed control in 2021.

On 8 Jan 24, an explosive device has exploded on the roadside in close proximity to a van transporting police officers who were providing security for workers engaged in an anti-polio vaccination campaign in northern Pakistan. An explosion ensued following the initiation of an anti-polio campaign by the Government of Pakistan in Mahmud, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which was formerly under the control of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The explosion resulted in the demise of six law enforcement officers and inflicted injuries upon 10 additional individuals.

The meeting between the Government of Afghanistan and JUI-F is primarily aimed at engaging in discussions to identify effective solutions for a problem and resolve any misunderstandings between the two neighbouring countries. An ongoing source of conflict between the two nations is the repatriation of over half a million Afghan nationals residing in Pakistan without legal authorization. Afghanistan regarded such approach as ineffective in resolving the situation and instead fostering mistrust.  The Pakistani government is apprehensive about the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan as they seek sanctuary from the Taliban regime. Nevertheless, Afghanistan has protested to this, asserting that it will not permit any terrorist organisation to utilise its territory as a launching pad for assaulting Pakistan. The tension between these two countries is unlikely to prompt any significant measures by the Afghanistan Taliban administration to ensure maximum border control and prevent it. Pakistan’s expulsion of Afghan people as a measure to combat terrorism is viewed as potentially causing humanitarian problems that adversely affect the country. The anti-polio programme frequently faces disruptions from terrorists, particularly the TTP, who perceive this immunisation drive as a Western scheme. This move is likely to be executed based on limited perspective and religious extremism, disregarding the opinions given by the experts of Pakistan. These actions exemplify their defence of the religion and rights of the Pakistani people, as well as their protection of the fundamental values that underpin their existence. Additionally, they are successfully garnering support from local individuals for their organisation, particularly among those who still harbour doubts or reservations regarding the vaccination campaign.

Russia

On 23 Mar 24, a total of 137 individuals lost their lives and 145 others sustained injuries in a terrorist assault that took place at Crocus City Hall in Moscow. The Daesh terrorist group has asserted accountability for the assault in a concise declaration released by the Daesh-associated news agency Amaq on the Telegram platform. The attackers, armed with guns and grenades, deliberately lit the building on fire, resulting in one of Moscow’s most severe acts of terrorism in the past two decades.

The attack occurred within a week after President Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in the election. Evidence indicates that the president’s triumph in the nation is probable to be a contributing element to the occurrence. The Russian Security Forces successfully apprehended four foreign suspects, including individuals from Tajikistan. The probable perpetrator of this incident is ISIS-K (ISIS Khorosan) due to their track record of engaging in acts of terrorism in Russia over the past two years, and their frequent mention in President Putin’s propaganda as a subject of criticism. The ISIS-K terrorist group asserted accountability for the suicide attack at the Russian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan in September 2022. On March 24, the US embassy in Russia cautioned American citizens to steer clear of major gatherings due to credible evidence indicating that ISIS-K had intentions to carry out attacks in Moscow by targeting such events. Russia is anticipated to enhance security measures in order to thwart terrorist strikes. This incident is anticipated to exacerbate the ongoing dispute between Russia and Ukraine, as the Russian President has accused the terrorist of attempting to seek refuge in Ukraine, a claim that Ukraine has refuted as baseless.

Somalia

7 Jan 24, The Somalia National Army (SNA), aided by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and local insurgents, has effectively eliminated 76 individuals affiliated with the Al-Shabaab extremist group. Additionally, numerous others were wounded during a two-day military operation conducted in the Mudug district. One of the casualties included a high-ranking leader of the Al-Shabaab extremist group. The operation conducted by the SNA has specifically targeted the strongholds of Al-Shabaab in central and southern Somalia. It has successfully demolished the bases and vehicles that are owned by the terrorists.

On 3 Feb 24, the SNA The Somalia National Army (SNA), with the assistance of local forces, has initiated a military campaign targeting Al-Shabaab in the village of Shabelow, located in the Mudug district. The conflict commenced when Al-Shabaab initiated an assault on a military installation within the urban area, utilising explosive devices and firearms. The SNA in collaboration with local troops, conducted an operation in which they discovered a cache of weaponry and successfully destroyed four trucks that belonged to the extremist group Al-Shabaab.

The operation has significantly affected the terrorist group Al-Shabaab, particularly in terms of morale, as they suffered substantial losses in terms of members, along with the destruction of their base and major injuries to several of its militants who were engaged in the battle. This indirectly hinders the terrorist group from temporarily executing any acts of terrorism in the region.  The Somali National Army (SNA) has intensified its military campaigns against the extremist organisation Al-Shabaab since July 2022 by closely collaborating with African nations within the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This endeavour demonstrates the efficacy of global collaboration in combating terrorism, as well as the populace’s consciousness in striving for an improved quality of life. However, the strategic placement of military personnel in regulated regions is considered crucial to prevent the reassertion of power by terrorist insurgents. Close collaboration between the government and local insurgents is considered crucial in providing military training and weapons assistance. This partnership helps address the security vacuum in the volatile region.

Turkiye

On 3 Feb 24, a total of 34 foreign individuals affiliated with Daesh were apprehended during the anti-terrorism operation codenamed Cage-35. This operation was conducted simultaneously in seven provinces, namely Istanbul, Kocaeli, Yalova, Kayseri, Bursa, Duzce, and Yozgat. The operation commenced following an incident in which two assailants discharged firearms at Christians inside a church.

On 7 Feb 24, 10 of 15 suspected Daesh members have been apprehended by Turkish Security Forces during an anti-terrorism operation in three provinces centred on Istanbul. The operation is executed in a total of 23 distinct locations, eight districts in Istanbul, and one each in the provinces of Kocaeli and Yalova.

Since June 2023, Turkish officials have arrested 2086 individuals believed to be associated with the Daesh terrorist organisation. Recently, Turkish officials apprehended 25 individuals who are believed to have committed the act of shooting a man during a religious gathering in a church. The terrorist organisation known as Daesh has acknowledged that they are responsible for the attack. They have stated that the motive behind the attack was in accordance with the directives issued by Daesh authorities to specifically target individuals who identify as Jews and Christians. The ongoing war in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine is a significant contributing element to the emergence of the spirit of jihad among the adherents of the terrorist group. Turkiye is anticipated to persistently escalate extensive efforts to counteract the ideology and subsequent activities of terrorist organisations within the country, with the aim of managing security challenges. Daesh is currently facing significant challenges due to targeted actions against it, including the apprehension and elimination of several members by Turkish authorities. The organisation has the ability to revive itself by employing innovative strategies to disseminate its ideas and attract prospective members.

Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia

Indonesia

On 9 Jan 24, Two emerging media conglomerates in Indonesia, Al-Qanishun and Al-Qosd, have recently begun translating posters and remarks from Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari, the spokesperson for Daesh, with regards to the “And Kill Them Whenever You Find Them” campaign. These two Indonesian media outlets that support Daesh also translated posters created by Daesh’s worldwide media, such as Hadm Al-Aswar and Tala’ia al-Ansar Production, into the Indonesian language.

On 27 Jan 24, A total of 10 individuals suspected of being members of the Jamaah Islamiyah terrorist organisation have been apprehended in various locations around Central Java, Indonesia. The suspected terrorist is accused of participating in giving operational assistance to the JI group, which includes aiding their actions, harbouring sought or fugitive members, and soliciting donations. Furthermore, it is believed that they also offer logistical support by gathering firearms or sharp weapons to enhance the capabilities and skills of JI members.

The Pro Daesh media organisation in Indonesia is likely to continue prioritising their campaign with the motto “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them.” The proliferation of Pro Daesh media groups is on the rise due to the campaign’s perceived ability to sway Daesh supporters across Southeast Asia. Concentrating on a “easy target” can have adverse consequences if the phone is answered by a supporter of Daesh from Malaysia. Terrorist groups are said to be targeting Indonesia’s 2024 General Election as an opportunity to disseminate extremist and radical ideology among the people. Based on records, there were a minimum of nine instances of terrorist actions directly linked to elections in 2014, and over six occurrences were observed during the 2019 elections. The Indonesia Security Forces’ proactive measure of detaining members of terrorist groups was deemed successful in preventing any disruptions during this year’s election, which occurred on February 14th.

The Philippines

On 3 Jan 24, Two intelligence operatives from the 51st Infantry Battalion (51IB) of the Army were fatally attacked in an ambush that took place in the town of Lininding, Munai, Lanao del Norte, Philippines. During the event, the three military intelligence agents were returning to the camp after successfully carrying out an intelligence operation in the neighbouring region when they were assaulted by unidentified armed individuals. At the scene, two out of the three agents, Raul Pabuaya and Murphy Delos Santos, were fatally wounded, while another member, Joenipher, successfully evaded the attack.

On 8 Dec, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) killed at least nine members of Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) in air and ground offensives carried out by the military. DI is the local and Arabic name for ISIS, the Middle Eastern terror group. DI had blamed the MILF for the military’s offensives against the Islamic State-aligned group which started after a confirmation that the group was recruiting people in Sitio Wata in Pagalungan.

On 10 Mar 24, Cpl Ricky Mendoza Gomez, a police intelligence officer stationed in Carmen, Cotabato province, was fatally assaulted in Santos City. An unidentified individual shot a participant of the advanced police intelligence networking proficiency training in the head and upper body using an M16 firearm when the victim was crossing the road in Barangay Sinawal. Members have already demonstrated exceptional accomplishments in apprehending numerous wanted terrorists among the ranks of the Dawlah Islamiya and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), who were implicated in lethal terrorist assaults.

The attack was believed to be connected to the retaliatory strike against the security operation carried out by the Philippine Security Forces, which resulted in the elimination of 12 members of the DI terrorist group on December 23. The Philippine Security forces are actively engaged in operations to apprehend all DI terrorists in the Philippines and ensure that their activities are entirely eradicated. The Philippine Security Forces have previously conducted many offensives against terrorist targets associated with Daesh through a Focused Military Operation (FMO) in order to prevent and eradicate the remaining militants in the country. During this period, multiple operations were conducted in the city of Lanao, which is considered a stronghold of the DI-Maute group. Specifically, these actions were place in Pantao Ragat, Poona Plagapo, and Munai. The offensive operation conducted to eradicate the DI network, which continues to pose a security risk in Maguindanao, is regarded as a crucial endeavour to prevent the DI’s retaliatory plan against the Philippine Security Forces. FMO is anticipated to persistently exert a significant influence on the DI group, which is progressively seeing a decline in backing from local people and sympathisers.

Malaysia

The national level of terrorist threat is now being effectively managed. The cumulative number of apprehensions in the nation pertaining to persons associated with Daesh terrorist and militant networks from 2013 to the present stands at around 562, comprising 196 non-nationals and 366 domestic residents.

On 27 Jan 24, Two Malaysian individuals who admitted to being involved in the terrorist explosions that resulted in the deaths of 202 individuals in Bali, Indonesia in 2002 have been given an extra five-year prison sentence. Earlier, the United States military court in Guantanamo convicted the two accused, identified as Farik Amin, 48, and Nazir Lep, 47, to a 23-year prison term. US military judge Lt. Col. Wesley A Braun has determined that the suspect may be released within five years due to the prosecutor’s incompetence in failing to meet a court deadline for providing evidence to the defence attorney during case preparation.

On 20 Feb 24, The Telegram group Usud Afriqiyah recently shared a collection of posters created by the Al Aan Foundation, a media entity associated with the Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP). The collection is titled “Just Terror Tactic“. A billboard has depicted a plan to launch an assault on three embassies in Malaysia: the United States, Russian, and Chinese embassies. Furthermore, this poster has also endorsed the campaign “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them“.

On 23 Mar 24, The propaganda group of the Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP), known as the Al Aan Foundation, has just shared a warning poster indicating their intention to target the Tokyo Skytree in Japan and the Merdeka 118 Tower in Malaysia for a future attack. The image submitted features the backdrop of the Merdeka 118 Tower in Malaysia, accompanied by the Daesh flag and the message “We Will Arrive on Your Doorstep.” Therefore, continue to remain patient. We are also eagerly awaiting with you! The image in the background of the Tokyo Skytree features the flag of Daesh, along with a phrase printed in Japanese that translates to “Come the Army that brings the truth“.

Following the sentence by US government, both Malaysian individuals will participate in a deradicalization programme administered by the Malaysian government and will be subject to lifelong surveillance by national security officials. This demonstrates the Malaysian government’s serious approach in addressing the issue of terrorism, serving as a model and a cautionary tale for fellow Malaysians to resist being swayed by terrorist objectives and propaganda. The Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF), in conjunction with the Royal Malaysian Police, must persist in shouldering the significant duty of preventing any new threats that may arise from this recent development, particularly in suppressing terrorist ideology among uniformed members. Moreover, religious institutions, which possess complete authority in Islamic matters, play a crucial role in addressing aspects of religious extremism. In terms of the overall role of the Malaysian Armed Forces, the Religious Corps of the MAF (KAGAT) is perceived as having the capacity to contribute to the planning of religious and spiritual activities. This includes initiatives like the Task Force PERISAI AKIDAH, which was previously implemented to provide education and clarification on the authentic Ahli Sunnah beliefs.

This particular instance of Daesh propaganda relating to Malaysia marks the first occurrence since 27 Feb 23, in which a pro-Daesh media unit has issued a poster targeting Malaysia. The billboard aims to urge Daesh supporters to attack Malaysia by featuring an image of the Petronas Twin Towers. An analysis of telegraph groups that disseminate information revealed that the majority of subscribers, who are members of these groups, are presumed to be from nations in the Middle East. Terrorist organisations are likely to manipulate the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict to incite their followers into launching attacks on Western targets globally. The phrase “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them” has been employed by Daesh in their worldwide campaign targeting Jews and their supporters since the beginning of January 2024. Daesh’s narrative of their war, which is disseminated on social media by their networks and supporters, continues to have an impact on Muslims, particularly in the virtual realm. Hence, it is imperative to enhance surveillance conducted by the authorities, particularly the Malaysian Communications Multimedia Commission (MCMC), in cooperation with the RMP and other relevant security agencies, to effectively restrict public access to radical extremist websites that disseminate Daesh narratives within Malaysia. In Malaysia, Daesh’s impact is relatively insignificant compared to other nations in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the current reception of Daesh’s campaign in Malaysia is not favourable, which can be attributed to the implementation of multiple awareness initiatives by different government ministries. However, despite this, the danger is still classified as high risk and surveillance of terrorism threat indicators continues intermittently.

Conclusion

The global and regional levels have seen a rise in incidences of terrorism during the first quarter of 2024, indicating a growing presence of extremism, radicalism, and terrorism. Countries like Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, Somalia, and Turkiye face persistent terrorism threats due to ongoing instability. Additionally, terrorist groups exploit Israel’s attacks on Palestine to incite lone wolf attacks, using the slogan “Kill Them Wherever You Find Them.” The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is believed to be a persistent source of violence, as evidenced by the recent incident in Russia that resulted in numerous casualties. It is crucial to address this issue seriously in order to prevent the emergence of a global trend of hostility, such as Islamophobia and xenophobia, within Russia. Turkiye remains proactive in countering terrorist threats by actively carrying out security operations along the Turkiye-Iraq-Syria border. The rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are rooted in the activities of the TTP terrorist group, which exploits the vulnerabilities in border security measures of both nations. Pakistan’s decision to repatriate over 500,000 undocumented Afghan residents is not perceived as a viable solution, as it fosters distrust and exacerbates humanitarian concerns. This action has a detrimental effect on the country, which is already grappling with challenges in its recently established government.

The rising threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia demonstrates that Indonesia’s proactive measures effectively suppressed terrorism in the country during an election period, resulting in no terrorist activity as opposed to past elections. Despite an increase in social media activity by pro-Deash media, particularly leading up to the election date and in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it has been discovered that the arrest of terrorist suspects has effectively halted the terrorist group’s plans and instilled fear among members of other terrorist groups. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the government is actively implementing Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) programmes, such as the Enhanced – Comprehensive Local Integration Programme (E-CLIP), to prevent the occurrence of terrorism. The Philippines implemented a more aggressive strategy known as Focused Military Operations (FMO) to suppress terrorist activities. This method effectively dismantled the DI-maguid group and resulted in the elimination of numerous high-ranking leaders from the DI, BIFF, and KAS terrorist organisations.

The prevalence of propaganda regarding terror threats against Malaysia is observed to be on the rise. Pro-Daesh media groups in the Middle East and Indonesia are making efforts to target Malaysian sympathisers and incite them to carry out lone wolf attacks against the assets and representatives of major world powers in Malaysia. The act of provocation is likely motivated by the limited influence of Daesh in Malaysia, relative to other Southeast Asian countries. They aim to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, perceiving Malaysia as a vocal advocate for the rights of the Palestinian people. Daesh supporters persist in using these tactics as their modus operandi to pique the curiosity of Malaysians, who are increasingly cognizant of the current terrorism crisis.

In conclusion, the global and regional threat of terrorism is increasing as a result of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Daesh’s campaign titled “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them”. Terrorist organisations persistently employ social media platforms as a fundamental tool to disseminate their ideology and enlist individuals to execute acts of terrorism independently. Each incidence influences the actions of specific groups to perpetrate more acts in different locations, motivated by the same feelings of hatred based on Islamophobia and xenophobia. These occurrences will continue to happen as long as the involved parties are influenced by religious sensitivity and racial feeling. If the countries experiencing this crisis do not handle it wisely through CVE awareness programmes, the situation would deteriorate. In Malaysia, it is imperative for the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (SKMM) and the Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) to collaborate closely in order to effectively monitor and prohibit the dissemination of any violent content within the country. This proactive approach is crucial in preventing any untoward situations from occurring. The dissemination of Daesh propaganda in Southeast Asia should not be underestimated, as the country’s potential terrorist threat level is currently moderate / Code Blue and the risk of terrorist acts is assessed as “possible”.

The fourth quarter of Terrorism Watch 2023 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from October to December 2023.

Growing concern in European nations, specifically France and Belgium, as a result of the spillover effect from Israel’s attack on Palestine, which was orchestrated by terrorist organisations.

The apprehension of ARSA’s primary leader is thought to have considerably diminished the group’s terrorist operations in the Cox’s Bazar camp. However, it may also serve as a motivating factor for ARSA members to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, particularly Malaysia, thereby heightening the potential for national security risks.

The subsequent advancement of the terrorist menace in Southeast Asia demonstrates the proactive actions undertaken by governments with significant terrorist activity, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which have effectively diminished the terrorism danger in those countries.

There is an observable rise in political and religious extremism, particularly following GE 15 with some organisations employ social media manipulation to further their own interests.

In conclusion, the fourth quarter of 2023 sees an increase in the global and regional threat that terrorism poses. The threat perception has shifted to incorporate the dissemination of narratives in cyberspace, particularly on social media.

Global Trend

There are significant events in a number of countries around the world during the fourth quarter of 2023. The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels has shown a significant increase, in addition to the latest trends in European and African countries. There is an increasing menace of terrorism, both on a local and worldwide scale, particularly in the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist organisations, particularly Daesh, persist in utilising social media and chat rooms as very efficient means for disseminating their ideology. Respective agencies such as Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) need to carry out periodic monitoring of social media content as well as video applications such as YouTube that are capable of threatening national security and can be blocked from being accessed by Malaysians if necessary.

The following are the highlights of  terrorism-related occurrences around the world:

Bangladesh

On 16 Oct 23, Bangladesh’s elite security force Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) has arrested the head of the killer squad of the Rohingya militant outfit, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), believed to be directly involved in two high-profile murders in recent years. in 2021. ARSA leader, Samiuddin was arrested during a raid in the Kutupalong refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar. Samiuddin was wanted for the murder of Mohibullah, the chairman of the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, in 2021 and the killing of a Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) officer on 14 Nov 2022.

On 10 Dec 23, RapidAction Battalion(RAB) has conducted numerous raids in Ashulia, Savar, Manikganj, Gazipur dan Mymensingh and arrested six operatives of Ansar al-Islam. Arrestees were identified as Abdur Razzak @ Ishak @ Saiba, 41, Shariful Islam @ Murad, 31, Rahman @ Usaiman, 27, Muhammad Zakaria @ Abar, 24, Al Amin @ Robin @ Samura, 24, dan Abu Jar Maruf, 18.  RAB personnel recovered a large number of books on extremism from their possession.

Since January of this year, Bangladeshi officials have detained 72 members of the terrorist group ARSA as part of a vigorous crackdown. They suspect that ARSA was responsible for the killings of BAF personnel. Given the ARSA’s involvement in acts of terrorism and crime within the camp, it is thought that the security operation successfully dismantled the ARSA network, namely in Cox’s Bazar. The violent actions carried out by ARSA have been widely regarded as a significant catalyst for the displacement of Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar. Consequently, surrounding nations have intensified their efforts to enhance border security measures in order to prevent the entry of Rohingya refugees into their respective territories. Simultaneously, a large-scale terrorist strike in Bangladesh was averted by the apprehension of individuals affiliated with the Ansar Al Islam Group. These individuals are believed to have completed military training and received bomb-making instruction in India, as well as training from Afghanistan. This group is said to be distributing several publications that promote extremism, the oppression of Muslims, as well as films and lectures, in an effort to gain adherents. The arrest of its members is likely to have a significant impact on the Ansar Al Islam group, as the bulk of those imprisoned hold key positions as finance officials, recruitment coordinators, and instructors for new recruits.

Belgium

On 16 Oct 23, Belgian police have shot dead a man suspected of killing two Swedish nationals and injuring a third person in a gun attack condemned by the country’s leader as “terrorist madness”. The accused, a 45-year-old Tunisian national, died in hospital after being shot in the chest. The suspect’s death comes after a man who identified himself as a member of Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack in a video posted online. The threat alert in Brussels was raised to its top level of four, meaning a “threat is extremely serious”. It was previously at level two, indicating an average threat.

The occurrence of this terrorist assault, supported by the extremist organisation Daesh, is not unprecedented in Belgium. The most recent example was documented in November 2022, when a terrorist associated with the Daesh organisation lethally stabbed a Belgian police officer. This assault seems to specifically target individuals of Swedish nationality, maybe due to their perceived association with the burning of the Quran a few months before by an Iraqi refugee. The Israeli-Palestinian instability is regarded as a contributing element in this incident, since terrorist organisations utilise it as a pretext to carry out their activities. The aforementioned tendency demonstrates the importance of addressing the Israel-Palestine conflict in order to prevent the rise of Islamophobia as a prominent issue in Europe, which might potentially lead to acts of violence. Through the analysis of violent events in Europe, such as the killing of Samuel Paty in France on October 16th and the assault on the Notre-Dame de Nice church in France on October 29th, proponents of Daesh have clearly shown that there is a possibility for the persistence of the phenomenon and worldwide trend known as the village effect. Each incidence, fuelled by hostile feelings such as xenophobia and Islamophobia, prompts a group of people to initiate an assault. These occurrences will continue to occur as long as there are those who use religious sensitivity and racial prejudice for their own purposes.

Pakistan

On 3 Dec 23, at least eight people were killed and 26 others injured when terrorists opened fire on a passenger bus in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s Gilgit Baltistan region. The bus was travelling from Gilgit to Rawalpindi when terrorists opened indiscriminate fire at around 6.30 pm in Chilas. Two army soldiers, who were in the bus, were also among the dead and one personnel of the Special Protection Unit was injured in the attack.

On 12 Dec 23, at least 23 soldiers have been killed and dozens injured in Pakistan after militants attacked a police compound. The attack took place in the early hours when a vehicle containing explosives rammed into the building in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, near the Afghan border. A militant group affiliated to the Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack. The compound was being used as a base camp for the Pakistani army.

The frequency of terrorist strikes in Pakistan has increased in recent years. In August 2023, Pakistan had a higher number of terrorist attacks than in any month in the past nine years. Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, the ceasefire between Pakistan’s security forces and the terrorist group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has ended. This has led to a rise in terrorist attacks targeting both civilians and security forces in the period leading up to the expected February 2024 elections in the country. This variable signifies that the TP is the predominant catalyst for the escalation of terrorist activities in Pakistan. A recently formed extremist group known as TJP, suspected to have joined forces with the TTP, poses an additional danger to Pakistan. Based on the evidence, TPJ has been implicated in several recent assaults aimed against prominent figures in the nation, resulting in the deaths of 12 Pakistani security personnel and the destruction of three aircraft. The operation is believed to have been orchestrated in a Taliban-controlled area of Afghanistan, taking into account the terrorist group’s tactics in the region next to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Islamabad is anticipated to exert pressure on Kabul to promptly address the issue of terrorists and prevent the ongoing use of Afghan land for launching assaults against Pakistan. In the absence of cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the issue of border security between them is seen unsolvable, allowing terrorist organisations to use this situation to strategically plan and execute acts of terrorism in the region. Hence, the government urges France SF to enhance security measures nationwide and heighten vigilance in all public spaces, especially educational institutions.

France

On 14 Oct 23, a teacher has been killed and two other people critically injured in a stabbing at a school in Arras, northern France. The suspected attacker, who has been arrested, was on a watchlist of people known to be a security risk in connection with radical Islamism. Local media reported that he was a former pupil at the Gambetta-Carnot school. Due to this incident, France has raised its threat alert to the highest level.

Following Israel’s assault on Hamas, the French Special Forces have apprehended 12 radicals in neighbouring vicinity including educational institutions and places of worship, as a direct consequence of the strike. Due to the increasing anti-Semitic sentiment and the presence of the largest Muslim population in Western Europe and the third-largest Jewish population globally (after Israel and the US), it is anticipated that France will continue to enforce strict security measures, including the prohibition of pro-Palestinian protests. Evidence and surveillance suggest that school assaults are exceedingly rare in France.

Somalia

On 3 Dec 23, The Somali National Army (SNA) killed 60 al-Shabab militants and wounded several others in a joint operation near Halgan town in central Somalia. The operation targeted al-Shabab militants and their commanders who were re-grouping to attack areas in central Somalia. The Somali government forces backed by the African Union Mission in Somalia drove al-Shabab out of Mogadishu in 2011, but the terrorist group is still capable of conducting attacks, targeting government installations, hotels, restaurants and public places.

On 10 Dec 23, six people were killed in an attack by the known-terrorist organisation, Al-Shabaab in Galgadud. One of them was known as Abdullahi Shamley, an influential leader of the local Macawisley militant group.

The ongoing military assault by Somalia’s Special Forces against the Al-Shabab terrorist group has effectively weakened the organisation, compelling them to abandon their base. Furthermore, the local population’s cooperation with the government in suppressing terrorist attacks by groups such as Al-Shabaab is attributed to the resolute leadership of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has declared a comprehensive war against the terrorist organisation. This has contributed to the government’s ability to successfully persuade the local population to support its endeavours. This alliance is expected to spearhead military operations against terrorist organisations and expedite the process of eradicating Al-Shabaab in the region. Nevertheless, certain regions have seen a deficiency in security oversight subsequent to the departure of the Somali Federal forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) from those areas.Al-Shabaab is exploiting the opportunity to launch attacks on local militants and civilians, especially in districts that were formerly their strongholds, while also trying to regain control of their land. The absence of security forces in the region, along with the limited resources and capabilities of local militants, has led to a poor perception of Somalia’s SF pullout. Terrorist operations are expected to continue until the government offers military assistance to supervise and control the situation in the region in response to Al-Shabaab strikes.

Turkiye

On 1 Oct 23, At least one person was killed and two others were injured in a bombing attack outside Turkiye’s Ministry of Home Affairs building in Ankara. Two attackers murdered a civilian and stole his vehicle in the country’s capital ahead of the opening of parliament. Two police officers reportedly received non-life-threatening. The ministry confirmed at least one of the two attackers is a member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK. The second attacker has yet to be identified.

On 11 Dec 23, Turkish security forces carried out air operations in northern Iraq, destroying 13 terror targets and neutralizing many senior terrorists. The operations were carried out in the Gara, Metina, Hakurk and Qandil regions to eliminate terrorist attacks against Türkiye and its security forces from northern Iraq by neutralizing members of the PKK terror group and other terrorist elements and to ensure border security in line with the self-defense rights.

It is commonly acknowledged that Turkiye, US and Europe define the PKK as a terrorist organisation comprised of Kurdish fanatics. The suicide assault took place shortly before the parliament resumed its activities after the summer recess, leading to allegations that the PKK had intentionally planned to target the parliament’s reopening and the ministry buildings. The Turkish government has undertaken many counterterrorism operations in recent years, aiming to eradicate the terrorist organisation both within its own borders and on a worldwide scale, including operations performed over the border into Syria. Turkiye has established many military outposts in Iraqi Kurdistan with the objective of neutralising the terrorist organisation. Furthermore, in order to ensure regional tranquilly and security, Turkey maintains strong connections with the Kurdish authorities in Iraq. Based on the data, the primary stronghold of the PKK terrorist organisation is located in Northern Iraq. From 2018 to June 2023, the Special Forces of Turkey carried out a minimum of 6,000 airstrikes predominantly targeting Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq. Following the commencement of “Operation Claw-Lock” in April of the previous year, which aimed to combat the PKK terrorist organisation in the northern area of Iraq next to the Turkish border, the Turkish Special Forces have escalated their airstrikes on PKK terrorist units. This operation has effectively removed important terrorist targets by preemptive and well-coordinated measures, therefore also impairing the capabilities of the PKK group. To mitigate the risk of terrorism in Turkey, the Turkish Special Forces will continue to carry out Claw-Lock operations in the next months, in accordance with prevailing operational patterns.

Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia

Indonesia

On 23 Oct 23, The Indonesian police’s counterterrorism squad, arrested nine people on suspicion of terrorism activities in three separate operations. Five suspects were arrested in South Sumatra, who had alleged ties with home-grown extremist group Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), which is linked to the Daesh terror group. A day later, DENSUS 88 officers arrested one suspect in West Kalimantan and three others in West Nusa Tenggara, who were affiliated with home-grown extremist group, Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), also linked to the Daesh group. JAD is responsible for a string of attacks in the country, including a suicide bombing at a cathedral in Makassar City on Sulawesi Island in March last year, and several suicide bombings at churches in East Java in 2018, which killed a dozen people. The group was declared an illegal organisation in 2018.

On 28 Oct 23,  Indonesian police has arrested at least 27 suspected militants believed to have links to banned extremist groups, in a nationwide crackdown as the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country gears up for elections in 2024. DENSUS 88 conducted the arrests on Friday in Jakarta, West Java and Central Sulawesi provinces. Most of the arrested are suspected of being members of a homegrown militant outfit affiliated with the Islamic State group known as Jemmaah Anshorut Daulah or JAD.

The utilisation of various propaganda techniques suggests a rise in the threat of terrorism in Indonesia. It is unsurprising considering Israel’s ongoing aggression towards the Palestinian population and its present preparations for the forthcoming presidential election, slated for February 2024. It is expected that terrorist organisations would continue to use these two tragedies to gain support and inspire lone wolf strikes in Indonesia.

The Philippines

On 3 Dec 23, at least four people were killed by the explosion, including three women, and 50 others were brought to two hospitals for treatment of mostly minor injuries. Philippine forces were on high alert during a Catholic mass in a university gymnasium in the south of the country, an attack the authorities called Islamist terrorism. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack. The group wrote on Telegram that its members detonated a bomb in the gathering.

On 8 Dec, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) killed at least nine members of Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) in air and ground offensives carried out by the military. DI is the local and Arabic name for ISIS, the Middle Eastern terror group. DI had blamed the MILF for the military’s offensives against the Islamic State-aligned group which started after a confirmation that the group was recruiting people in Sitio Wata in Pagalungan.

The elimination of eleven suspected terrorists in a special forces operation that took place in December in the town of Datu Hoffer in the southern province of Maguindanao is believed to be connected to the bombing incident. The deceased individuals were members of the Maute terrorist organisation, a branch of the DI, which maintains connections with Daesh. The Philippine government continues to reap advantages from the Focused Military Operation (FMO) implemented by its own administration. The aggressive effort conducted to eliminate the DI network, which remains a security risk in Maguindanao, is considered a crucial measure to prevent the DI from retaliating against the Philippines forces, as they did in previous terrorist attacks. This incident is expected to greatly impact the DI organisation, since they are seeing a decline in supporters and local residents. However, it is expected that the Philippine security forces would implement stricter safety measures in order to prevent future bombings of innocent sites.

Malaysia

The national threat on terrorism is currently moderate. Since 2013, there have been 562 arrests in the nation of people affiliated with terrorist groups and militant networks, comprising 196 foreigners and 366 locals.

On 1 Nov, The Eastern Sabah Security Command (ESSCOM) will release their latest list of 13 individuals wanted by authorities for links to militant activities. A study is underway and both the police’s Special Branch and ESSCOM play a role in monitoring the movements of those on the list. Most of the individuals on the list were now outside the Eastern Sabah Safety Zone (ESS Zone).

On 4 Dec 23, a key Abu Sayyaf bomb maker, who was on the Eastern Sabah Security Command’s (ESSCOM) wanted list and linked to several kidnap cases in Sabah waters, was killed by Philippine security forces. The notorious Abu Sayyaf extremist, Mundi Sawadjaan, was also behind the 2020 twin suicide blasts on Jolo island in southwest Philippines. He was shot dead during a firefight in Basilan province.

On 28 Nov, the police arrested an individual who offered RM5 million for a death threat on the Prime Minister, YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The offer was made by the 34-year-old via his personal account @jaiadani89 on the TikTok social page. the case was being investigated under Section 507 Penal Code and Section 233 Communication and Multimedia Act 1998. Two days later, he has been granted police bail as the investigation against him has been completed.

ESSCOM has apprehended five individuals in Sabah this year suspected of involvement in terrorist activities. The absence of kidnappings since January 2020 indicates a reduction in terrorist threats and cross-border crimes. The offensive operation aimed at dismantling the DI network is crucial to prevent retaliation against the Philippines SF. ESSCOM needs to enhance operations, enforcement, and intelligence gathering to prevent future bombings. They must also ensure no individuals on the list have successfully entered the nation and take an active stance against terrorist recruitment or threats. ESSCOM must enhance operations, enforcement, and information collection to maintain security in the ESS Zone, preventing potential compromises and adopting a proactive stance against terrorist organizations enlisting locals with terrorist ideologies or generating threats in the East Coast region.

Mundi Sawagjaan’s death has impacted ASG, leading to a significant number of members surrendering and embracing the Enhanced – Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP). With the group’s declining strength and lack of threat in Sulu, it is expected to be eradicated within a defined timeframe. Mundi Sawagjaan is suspected of orchestrating two major attacks in Jolo, Sulu. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the suspect’s nephew is Hatib Hajan Sawdjaan, who holds the position of commander for Daesh in the Philippines and is a prominent leader located in Sulu. In addition to his uncle, Sawadjaan’s family has numerous relatives who are affiliated with the KAS, including his cousin Arsibar Sawadjaan, brother Madsmar Sawadjaan, and brother Mannul Sawadjaan, all of whom perished in a prior conflict with the Philippine forces.

The prevalence of extremist tendencies in politics and religion is notably growing, particularly in the aftermath of GE 15. A multitude of individuals were apprehended for endeavouring to jeopardize the security and steadfastness of the nation as a result of their ideological and political zealotry. This type of danger arises from substantial ideological disputes, a dearth of contextual understanding on the matter, and a proclivity to accept internet information without conducting thorough study. Politicians and social media influencers are widely acknowledged to exert significant impact on society, particularly in relation to sensitive topics such as race, religion, and royalty. Most elected officials and politicians deliberately disseminate inaccurate information about their adversaries to further their own interests. This might potentially foster radical cognitive processes, an ideology characterized by animosity, and the subsequent formation of individuals with extreme tendencies. Videos and other items that have the capacity to jeopardize national unity should be prohibited, and individuals who disseminate such material should face legal consequences to increase public consciousness. The current legal approach is essential due to the potential of religious and racial concerns to jeopardize the peace and security of the country if left unaddressed.

Conclusion

Terrorism incidents at the global and regional level still show a significant increase for the period of the Fourth Quarter of 2023 in line with the opening of the international borders. Globally, Terrorism continues to pose a significant threat in countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Somalia, and Turkey due to ongoing instability. Additionally, there is a growing concern in European nations, specifically France and Belgium, as a result of the spillover effect from Israel’s attack on Palestine, which was orchestrated by terrorist organisations. The ongoing developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are exacerbating the threat of terrorism in Europe. It is imperative to implement stringent measures to prevent Europe from succumbing to the repercussions of the global interconnectedness. Following any occurrence that incites a group of individuals to carry out an assault, organised expressions of xenophobia and Islamophobia, which are rooted in hatred, are frequently observed. Somalia, Nigeria, and Turkey are considered proactive and pre-emptive in addressing the threat of terrorism during the fourth quarter of this year. With the help of ATMIS, security forces have successfully regained control over a substantial part of the land that was previously under the control of Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Nevertheless, should ATMIS reduce its military personnel by 3,000 by the conclusion of this year, Somalia would inevitably face specific difficulties. There is an anticipation of an increase in terrorist attacks in Somalia due to the aggressive targeting by Al-Shabaab in places with inadequate protection. The apprehension of ARSA’s primary leader is thought to have considerably diminished the group’s terrorist operations in the Cox’s Bazar camp. However, it may also serve as a motivating factor for ARSA members to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, particularly Malaysia, thereby heightening the potential for national security risks.

The subsequent advancement of the terrorist menace in Southeast Asia demonstrates the proactive actions undertaken by governments with significant terrorist activity, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which have effectively diminished the terrorism danger in those countries. In addition, neighbouring countries in the area are continuously adopting non-confrontational strategies by implementing programmes such as the Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) programme, with the objective of averting the spread of violent extremism. An essential measure in averting untoward occurrences, particularly during Indonesia’s preparatory stage for the next Presidential Election, is the effective performance of Indonesian security forces in detecting and apprehending many alleged terrorist factions.Statistical data indicates an increase in terrorist incidents in Indonesia coinciding with the period of elections. Nevertheless, the ongoing situation in the southern Philippines illustrates that the Philippine government is utilising a combination of a stringent strategy, known as FMO, and a more lenient approach, referred to as E-CLIP, to counteract terrorist activities. Due to the use of these two strategies, several members of terrorist groups have managed to successfully disengage from their organisations and transition into a more promising existence. In order to thwart the efforts of terrorist organisations in the southern Philippines, it is expected that the Philippine Special Forces would increase its offensive operations using the Focused Military Operations strategy, as long as there are still some terrorists adhering to their ideology.

Individual updates must exhibit ESSCOM’s ongoing dedication to aiding in the detection of any indications related to terrorist groups’ operations in the Malaysian-Philippine regions, in accordance with the organization’s original objectives of protecting the security of ESSZONE community members. There is an observable rise in political and religious extremism, particularly following GE 15. Some organisations employ social media manipulation to further their own interests, therefore fostering extreme ideologies and a culture of animosity that ultimately leads to extremism. Under the existing legislation, both the individuals responsible for inciting and the dissemination of films are subject to arrest, while also being subjected to certain limitations. Immediate action must be taken to prohibit any content that has the potential to jeopardise national cohesion.

In a nutshell, there is an increasing menace of terrorism, both on a local and worldwide scale, particularly in the aftermath of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist organisations, particularly Daesh, persist in utilising social media and chat rooms as very efficient means for disseminating their ideology. Moreover, considering the increasing prevalence of solitary acts of violence perpetrated by adolescents in several countries, notably in Europe, the propagation of violent ideologies via online gaming platforms like Roblox remains a source of worry. In order to avoid the dissemination of unauthorised occurrences, it is imperative for MCMC and RMP to consistently monitor and curb the proliferation of any violent material within Malaysia. Video apps such as Facebook, Telegram, YouTube, and other chatroom platforms are more accessible for connecting with sympathisers. According to statistics, these platforms are responsible for 80 percent of the dissemination of terrorist ideology and propaganda.

In the Fourth Quarter, there has been a noticeable inclination towards utilising Bahasa Malaysia to disseminate ideals originating from Indonesia, while creating the perception that Malaysians endorse them. The problem is seen as the tactic employed by Daesh sympathisers to captivate the attention of Malaysians, who are believed to be growing more cognizant of the present situation of terrorism. The degree of possible terrorism threat in Southeast Asia is now assessed as moderate, or Code Blue, with a probable chance of terrorist strikes. Therefore, it is crucial to avoid disregarding the dissemination of Daesh propaganda in the region.

The third quarter of Terrorism Watch 2023 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from July to September 2023. Somalia has now successfully regained control of more than 215 locations previously controlled by the Al-Shabaab group with the help of ATMIS, but it is expected to be a bit challenging when ATMIS will extract a number of military personnel by the end of this year which will result in Al-Shabaab having the opportunity to control the area again.

In Southeast Asia, The death of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi and the announcement of Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi as the new leader of Daesh have increased the support for Daesh, especially in Southeast Asia countries. There are still efforts to reactivate terrorist groups as well as the spread of Daesh ideology in Indonesia by JAD followers who are obsessed and fanatical with their jihad struggle.

Classifying a group and individual as terrorists is significant because it will facilitate the government to monitor the process and action against any terrorist activity in Malaysia.

In conclusion, the third quarter of 2023 sees an increase in the global and regional threat that terrorism poses. The threat perception has shifted to incorporate the dissemination of narratives in cyberspace, particularly on social media. Countries, particularly in this region, must take drastic measures to mitigate the issue.

Global Trend

There are significant events in a number of countries around the world during the third quarter of 2023. The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels has shown a significant increase, in addition to the latest trends in European countries. The detection of trends in the use of online gaming platforms as in the previous report shows that the online platform and social media applications are still one of Daesh’s modus operandi for spreading propaganda that focuses on teenagers. Respective agencies such as Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) need to carry out periodic monitoring of social media content as well as video applications such as YouTube that are capable of threatening national security and can be blocked from being accessed by Malaysians if necessary.

The following are the highlights of  terrorism-related occurrences around the world:

Afghanistan

On Aug 22, 23, a bomb explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan has left four people dead and many injured. The incident occurred near the Afghan Taliban Ministry building when a rickshaw equipped with an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) exploded. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) terrorist group has claimed to be responsible for the incident.

ISKP continues to be the main threat to the Taliban in restoring peace to Afghanistan. The attack was carried out to show ISKP is still relevant in Afghanistan and welcoming the new leader of Daesh. The trend of ISKP attacks in Afghanistan is more directed towards Taliban groups, Shiite minority groups and foreigners. ISKP attacks have also had a negative impact on Afghanistan’s socio-economics. The threat of terrorism in Afghanistan is seen to continue for a long time if no drastic efforts are taken by the current government to fight ISKP.

Bangladesh

On 8 Jul 23, India’s ‘most wanted’ Al Qaeda terrorist, Ikramul Haq @ Abu Talha, was arrested in Sabuj Bagh Dhaka, Bangladesh with his wife Faria Afrin by the Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime Unit (CTTC). Faria Afrin is also an important member of the group possess fake Indian citizenship.

On 22 Jul 23, the Bangladesh Elite Forces arrested Hafez Nur Mohammad, the main leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) at Cox’s Bazar refugee camp, southeast of Bangladesh. ARSA is a militant group responsible for many criminal activities, kidnappings and murders.

Bangladesh has become a hub for members of terrorist groups from India, Nepal and Pakistan whose trying to escape from the custody of the authorities. The arrest of Abu Talha, the highest leader of AQIS, is also the result of interrogations conducted on several AQIS members who were arrested in May 2023 in Gujarat, India. Therefore, the arrest of Abu Talha is seen to slowing down the activities of AQIS in South Asia as well as assisting India and Bangladesh to arrest more key figures related to terrorist groups such as Ansar Al-Islam in Bangladesh. The success of Bangladesh security forces in arresting senior leaders of ARSA is considered as one of the efforts to reduce ARSA’s extortion and criminal activities in the Cox’s Bazar camp. The actions of Bangladesh security forces to crack down on the ARSA network, especially in Cox’s Bazar, are seen as significant in dealing with the terrorist and criminal activities of ARSA active in the camp. However, this security operation is capable of being a push factor for members of ARSA to escape to neighboring countries such as Malaysia in order to seek protection, as well as increasing the risk of threats to national security.

Nigeria

On 16 Aug 23, 78 Boko Haram terrorists and family members surrendered to the Multi National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), Sector 3 of Operation Hadin Kai in the Monguno local government area of Borno State. This is due to the pressure from the operation of the Nigerian security force and the attack from the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) group.

On 26 Aug 23, 41 terrorists from Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP) were killed during conflict in Northeast Borno. ISWAP terrorists who came with several boats attacked the Boko Haram terrorist group led by Bakoura Buduma in the Kukawa Local Government area located about 130 KM from Maiduguri. There were several leaders killed in the attack including Modu Kayi, Abbah Musa, Isa Muhammed, Ibrahim Ali, Kanai Zakariya, Bula Salam, Isuhu Alhaji Umaru, Dogo Salman dan Abdulrahman Malam Musa.

The success of the Nigerian Armed Forces in several operations combating terrorist has had a positive impact on the current situation of terrorism in Nigeria. The ongoing operation to disable the activities of the Boko Haram group by the Nigerian forces as well as the fierce battle with ISWAP terrorists has been regard as a push factor for some Boko Haram members and their families to surrender in order to get protection. Although Boko Haram in Buduma succeeded in capturing nearly 60 ISWAP terrorists and captured three main leaders, ISWAP still have an advantage at this point following the defection of Abou Idris, the former head of Boko Haram who joined ISWAP group to fight Boko Haram. The conflict between Boko Haram and ISWAP has become increasingly critical especially in the Sambisa forest in Borno and the Lake Chad region to remain relevant in leading the African region.

Pakistan

On 30 Jul 23, at least 55 people died and 135 wounded after a suicide bomber attacked a political rally organized by the Islamist party in Khar, Bajaur district, near the Afghan border. The erupting attack targeted members of the Jamiat Ulama e Islam Fazl (JUI F) party, which gathered around 500 people during the rally. Maulana Ziaullah, the local leader of the Rehman Party, was among the dead while Senator Abdur Rasheed and former Parliamentary Member, Maulana Jamaludin managed to escape. No terrorist group claimed to be responsible for the attack.

On 11 Sep 23, Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacked a military convoy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan and seized the military headquarters in Chitral. The action also follows a series of attacks on security forces in Chitral a few weeks ago. During the incident, four soldiers died and seven TTP members were also killed. TTP has claimed responsible for the attack aimed at security forces as the main target.

The JUI-F political party led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman is considered as pro-Taliban and his political party is part of the coalition government in Islamabad. This attack was carried out by ISKP who targeted JUI-F party leaders. While the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa incident shows that TTP attacks were concentrated in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region based on the trend in several hotspot locations such as North Waziran, Balochistan and several other locations. Pakistan has remarked a significant increase in terrorist activities especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, after the TTP ended a ceasefire with the government in November last year. Terrorist groups in Pakistan are expected to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in near future to put pressure on the interim government before the General Elections.

Somalia

On 24 Jul 23, 30 members from Somali Armed Forces died and 73 others were injured resulted from an explosion at a military training camp in Somalia. The suicide bombing incident took place at Jalle Siyaad Army Training Camp while recruits were lining up for administrative activities. The soldiers killed in the attack were mostly from Lower Shabelle province.

On 5 Sep 23, Somali security forces has killed 43 Al-Shabaab terrorists and wounded several others during an operation in Galgaduud province, Somalia. Somali Armed Forces also destroyed three Al-Shabaab combat vehicles and foiled another attack by the Al Shabaab terrorist group in the Shabelle province.

The suicide attack at the Jalle Siyaad Military Training Camp was carried out by Al-Shabaab followers as a revenge for the offensive operation carried out by the Somalian Armed Forces (SAF) recently. In recent weeks, the military campaign against the Al-Shabaab group has been temporarily halted to allow SAF to prepare for the second attack. This also gives space to these terrorist groups in organizing strategies to carry out counterattacks. In addition, security operations continue to be implemented as the Somali government steps up its efforts to mobilize the public against Al-Shabaab. This move aimed at galvanizing public support for the ongoing offensive operation. During the first phase, SAF managed to regain control of more than 215 locations that were previously under the control of the Al-Shabaab group with the help of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). However, the second phase is expected to be challenging when ATMIS will extract a group of 3000 military personnel by the end of this year while the help of local tribes in eliminating Al-Shabaab is seen as less serious.

Syria

On 5 Aug 23, Daesh has announced the death of its leader, Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurashi, who was killed in north western Syria. Abu al Hussein was killed after an attack with the jihadist group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) in Idlib and Daesh has also announced Abu Hafs al Hashimi al Qurashi as the fifth leader of Daesh.

On 12 Aug 23, Daesh has ambushed a bus carrying the Syrian army and killed at least 20 members and wounded 10 others. The attack, carried out by the Daesh’s sleeper cell, near the eastern city of Mayadeen, in Deir Az Zor.

After the death of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi last April, Daesh has taken almost four months to find a new leader for the group. The announcement of Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi as the new and fifth leader of Daesh will provide a positive indication, especially in Southeast Asian countries’ supporters. Support for the highest leadership is usually expressed through bai’ah videos and ideology. Recently, operations by among Southeast Asian countries have reduced the momentum of terrorist activities and the spread of the group’s ideology. While in Syria, attacks by Daesh sleeper cells have given a message showing Daesh is still relevant and powerful. Daesh ideology is expected to be spread, especially among the youth in refugee camps that are nest for this ideology, and Daesh will continue to adapt all technologies to attract and increase their followers.

Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia

Indonesia

On 16 Jul 23, Densus 88 arrested suspected terrorists in Lombok identified as HSN @ UL and OS @ O. Densus 88 arrested HSN @ UL in Kampung Baru, Mukim Selong, East Lombok District while OS @ O at Lembar Port jetty, West Lombok. HSN allegedly played a role in recruiting members of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) Bima. Meanwhile, OS @ O is a member of East Lombok JAD who is actively spreading tutorial videos on making bombs and firearms as well as planning to move to Syria.

On 5 Aug 23, five members of JAD in Sukoharjo and Boyolaili, Central Java Indonesia have been charged on planning to attack the Solo Police Station. These five suspects were also linked to the previous suicide bombing incident at the Astana Anyar Police Headquarters, Bandung. All of them were arrested while trying to collect donation boxes marked with ‘Friends of the Sky and Donation Boxes of Friends of the People’ to finance the terrorist acts in Solo.

On 14 Aug 23, suspected terrorist Dananjaya Erbening, an employee of the Indonesian Railways (KAI) was arrested for planning an attack on the Mobil Brigade Corps Command Headquarters (Mako Brimob) Kelapa Dua, Depok, West Java. The main purpose was to free the prisoners of terrorism and seize the weapons depot. The Indonesian security forces has found dozens of evidence such as 18 long-barreled, short-barreled and water guns modified into firearms as well as thousands of bullets including several guns and radical reading materials during the search.

The success of these operations has shown that Indonesian government is aggressive in countering terrorist activities. However, there are still efforts to reactivate terrorist groups as well as the spread of Daesh ideology in Indonesia carried out by JAD followers who are obsessed and fanatical with their jihad struggle. Dananjaya Erbening has seen actively supporting Daesh through social media accounts and as an administrator of several Telegram channels, documentaries and news archives. Based on the amount of weapons and ammunition seized, it shows that the suspect is ready to organize a strategy to carry out attack by a large group of terrorist. There is no doubt that the items found indicate the possibility of a terrorist attack plan during the 2024 Indonesian General Election. Although sanctions and the enforcement of anti-terror laws have almost paralyzed the terrorist groups in Indonesia, the spread of Daesh’s narrative is still prevalent which may result in terror attacks to continue.

The Philippines

On 2 July 23, the Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP) group announced their new leader to replace Abu Zacharia. Al-Fursan Media announced that ISEAP has chosen Abu Turaife as the successor asserted that he will lead Daesh in the Southeast Asian region and threatened to take revenge on security forces for killing their leader. Abu Zacharia @ Faharudin Hadji Benito Satar was killed on June 14, 23 by Philippine security forces in Barangay Bangon, Lanao del Sur.

On 15 Aug 23, 10 members of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) suspected of attacking two military trucks and a vehicle in an ambush in Ungkaya Pukan, Basilan. The attack led to the death of one Philippine security force and eight wounded on their way to scout a location for a mission. It was reported that the Philippine security force also retaliated and forced the terrorist group to retreat.

The death of Abu Zacharia has caused Daesh groups under ISEAP to start reshaping its direction and target. Failure to appoint a new leader to replace Abu Zacharia will lead the remaining groups to split and weaken the structure and ideology of their group. Abu Turaife’s appointment was made based on his abilities and capabilities in religion as well as radical movements which is the central nerve of Daesh ideology.

The current situation in the Southern Philippines has had an impact on the survival of terrorist groups. The pre-emptive operation carried out by the Philippines Armed Forces (PAF) has put pressure on the remaining terrorist groups. Although various efforts have been implemented by the government, they have not yet been able to change the perception and ideology of the remaining terrorists who still adhere to the principles of their struggle. Security operations through the Focused Military Operation (FMO) are expected to be intensified to prevent terrorist groups from organizing strategies for any terrorist activity in the Southern Philippines.

Malaysia

The status of terrorism threat at the national level is under control. Total number individuals involved with Daesh terrorist and militant networks arrested since 2013 until now is 562 individuals including 196 foreigners and 366 local citizens.

On 20 Jul 23, five members of the Royal Sulu Force (RSF) were spotted in a Pondohan, Semporna Sabah. The group is reported to establish connection with RSF sympathizers to provide financial assistance in addition to reviewing the level of security around Pondohan.

This development shows that RSF is always looking for opportunities in carrying out any attack that may threaten national security. This group has been declared as terrorist group by the Malaysian government since April 2022 and in the latest development, the Malaysian Government also classified Fuad or his full name Muhammad Fuad Abdullah Kiram as a terrorist for having “participated in and facilitated the commission of terrorist acts”. Classifying a group and individual as terrorists is significant because it will facilitate the government to monitor the process and action against any terrorist activity in Malaysia. Security agencies especially the Eastern Sabah Security Command (ESSCOM) need to be alert in detecting any indicators related to the suspicious activities of this terrorist group along Malaysia-Philippines waters.

Conclusion

Terrorism incidents at the global and regional level still show a significant increase for the period of the Third Quarter of 2023 in line with the opening of the international borders. At the global level, countries such as Afghanistan, Cameroon, Iraq, Libya, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Serbia, Somalia, Syria and Turkey continue to receive threats of terrorism due to on-going conflicts while there are new countries that have similar indicators such as New Zealand. Somalia has now successfully regained control of more than 215 locations previously controlled by the Al-Shabaab group with the help of ATMIS, but it is expected to be a bit challenging when ATMIS will extract a number of military personnel by the end of this year which will result in Al-Shabaab having the opportunity to control the area again. The arrest of ARSA’s senior leader is seen as significant in reducing ARSA’s terrorist activities in the Cox’s Bazar camp, but could be a push factor for ARSA group members to escape to neighboring countries, especially Malaysia, at the same time increasing the risk of national security threats. Meanwhile, The death of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi and the announcement of Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi as the new leader of Daesh has increased the support for Daesh, especially in Southeast Asian countries.

On the other hand, the development of the threat of terrorism in the Southeast Asian region, countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines continue to implement pre-emptive actions and successfully curb the threat of terrorism in the country in the third quarter of the year while other countries in the Southeast Asian region continue to be proactive in ensuring that the threat of terrorism does not occur through bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Several arrests related to members of the JAD group show that there are efforts to reactivate terrorist activities as well as the spread of Daesh terrorist ideology in Indonesia. The massive arrests of individuals and weapons have indicated the possibility of a terrorist attack when Indonesia’s 2024 General Elections could take place. The death of Abu Zacharia and the failure to appoint a new leader to replace him can weaken the structure and ideology of the terrorist group’s especially ASG in the Southern Philippines. The appointment of Abu Turaife is vital in re-strengthening the group and this appointment was made based on his abilities and capabilities in religion as well as radical movements. While the current situation in the South of the Philippines shows that the Enhanced – Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP) and FMO have had an impact on the survival of terrorist groups but there are still remnants of terrorists who still stick to their principles of struggle.

In general, the global and regional threat posed by terrorism is beginning to intensify. The threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia spans the global, national, and regional arenas. This growing threat cannot be eradicated by any single state as it is a transnational threat that requires a multilateral response. The potential return of foreign fighters and their families from detention facilities in Syria and Iraq remains an issue of great concern in Southeast Asia. The reality is that Southeast Asia has been through this before; the last time foreign fighters came home, they returned with connections to international networks, foreign funding sources, and refined tactics. The threat perception has shifted to include the spreading of propaganda in cyberspace, such as on social media. The issue of terrorism on a global and regional scale has no effect on national security at this time. As such, national security and the threat of terrorism should not be treated lightly. The potential threat of terrorism in the nation remains at a moderate level and a terrorist attack remains possible.

The second quarter of Terrorism Watch 2023 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from April to June 2023. The announcement of the demise of a Daesh leader is deemed significant for the Daesh network in Syria and abroad. At the same time, the deaths of their key leaders would be able to suspend any terrorist activity in Syria, the Middle East and Europe after an aggressive attack conducted by the US and SDF. Meanwhile, the turmoil in Afghanistan allows terrorist groups to use it as a hub for training and a safe haven location as countries such as China and Pakistan intensify operations against terrorist groups. In addition, the success of the Somalian Armed Forces, together with other countries under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), has had a positive impact on countering terrorism.

In Southeast Asia, sanctions and enforcement of anti-terror laws have nearly crippled terrorist groups in Indonesia. However, the spread of terrorist narratives and ideologies in the cyber space are still prevalent in Indonesia, indicating that there is an effort to revive JI in Indonesia. Meanwhile, The Philippine security forces continue its effort to combat terrorism in the Southern Philippines which led to several new arrests. The effectiveness of PCVE program has shown successful in counter terrorism effort.

Malaysian government has developed a dedicated website to provide information on the Sulu case which also published in five languages ​​including Tagalog, French and Spanish with the aim of providing accurate information to the public and the international community.

In conclusion, the second quarter of 2023 sees an increase in the global and regional threat that terrorism poses. The threat perception has shifted to incorporate the dissemination of narratives in cyberspace, particularly on social media. Countries, particularly in this region, must take drastic measures to mitigate the issue.

Global Trend

There have already been significant events in a number of countries around the world during the second quarter of 2023. The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels has shown a significant increase since the opening of borders, in addition to the latest trends in European countries. The detection of trends in the use of online gaming platforms as in the previous report shows that the online platform and social media applications are still one of Daesh’s modus operandi for spreading propaganda that focuses on teenagers. Respective agencies such as Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) need to carry out periodic monitoring of social media content as well as video applications such as YouTube that are capable of threatening national security and can be blocked from being accessed by Malaysians if necessary.

The following are the highlights of  terrorism-related occurrences around the world:

Turkiye

On 1 May 23, President Turkiye issued a statement saying that his intelligence agency succeeded in killing the leader of Daesh, known as Abu Hussein al-Qurashi, in a raid on 30 Apr 23 in Maska, North of Jindires. The Daesh leader reportedly blew himself up and he was also the fourth Caliph of Daesh, who joined the group in 2013.

The demise of the Daesh leader is deemed significant for the group’s network in Syria and abroad. However, the Turkish government has not provided further confirmation regarding the death of the leader involved. Turkiye had previously made an announcement regarding the arrest of Daesh leader, Abu Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, but the United States (US) denied the claim when it succeeded in killing the leader in a separate incident. Even so, news of the death is believed to affect Daesh’s operations at this point. The killing of the Daesh leader is also seen to force Daesh to continue its agenda in a decentralized manner without direction from a recognized “Caliph”.

Syria

On 4 Apr 23, the US military issued a statement that it had killed a senior leader of Daesh in Syria. The US Central Command (CENTCOM), identified the man as Khalid Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri who was responsible for planning Daesh attacks in Europe and has been developing a leadership structure for the militant group in Turkey. Jabouri had been under close surveillance for several months as he moved between the Syrian cities of Hasakah, Raqqa, Jarablus and al-Bab before settling in Idlib province where he was killed.

The US and the SDF have been carrying out a series of aggressive actions against Daesh in recent weeks which led to the death of Daesh’s key leaders. They were Khalid Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri and Abd-al-Hadi Mahmud al-Haji Ali, who were responsible for planning Daesh attacks in Europe and Hamza al-Homsi. The death of Daesh’s senior leaders would be able to suspend any terrorist operation in Syria, the Middle East and Europe. The death of its leader is seen as significant because Daesh is still actively spreading propaganda on their planning to launch attacks in the Middle East and Europe. The US military’s efforts give an indicator that the US is still active in countering terrorism even though its presence in the Middle East and South Asia has decreased.

Pakistan

On 7 May 23, the Foreign Ministries of Pakistan, China and Afghanistan have agreed to participate in the Fifth China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Trilateral Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue in Islamabad aiming at combating terrorism and increasing cooperation in political engagement, trade and investment. Separately, Afghanistan and Pakistan also held in-depth discussions on key issues of mutual interest such as security and border control.

The China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Trilateral Foreign Minister’s Dialogue is seen as an effort taken by the three countries in dealing with the threat of terrorism in their respective countries. The turmoil in Afghanistan allows terrorist groups to use it as a hub for training and a safe haven location as countries such as China and Pakistan intensify operations against terrorist groups. The cooperation is also seen to help the Taliban to improve its image which has always been associated with terrorist groups in Afghanistan. While for China, this initiative is to prevent the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) group from obtaining funds and training in Afghanistan. For Pakistan, this understanding is very important to deal with the threat of Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) which is increasingly active in Pakistan.

Nigeria

On 3 June 23, the Nigerian security forces attacked in Sector 1, Operation Hadin Kai succeeded in arresting 73 ISWAP terrorists including their family members in Borno. All of them surrended in the villages of Bula Bello, Zaramari, Garno, Ngauri, Siraja, Nbellana, Bula Ashe, Guraba and Nemaila.

The Nigerian security force attacked Boko Haram via Operation HADIN KAI in the North East zone between 4 to 18 May 2023. It includes land and air operations which was favouring the Nigerian security force. The success is also supported by the fact that the Boko Haram group is getting weaker due to its defeat with ISWAP in Borno. This series of attacks succeeded in restraining Boko Haram from carrying out counter-attacks while also showing many of its members surrendering. Meanwhile, the Desert-Lake-Mountain II operation that was implemented on 27 Apr 23, in the Sambisa-Timbuktu Triangle axis and the shores of Lake Chad conducted by the Nigerian security force succeeded in weakening the ISWAP terrorist group and the Hadin Kai Operation continued to be implemented to not give space to this terrorist group organize an attack. This success shows the determination of the Nigerian government to eliminate terrorist activities in restoring the people’s trust in the government. The consistency of the operation is able to curb any terrorist activities carried out by these two terrorist groups.

On 19 May 23, 511 members of the Boko Haram group and their families surrendered, consisting of 99 men, 161 women and 251 children following an attack by the Nigerian security force in North East Nigeria. The forces also rescued a Chibok schoolgirl who was kidnapped by the Boko Haram group.

Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia

Indonesia

On 4 Apr 23, DENSUS 88 revealed the arrest of four Uzbek citizens suspected of being members of Katibah Tawhid wal Jihad (KTJ). They are Bakhromjon Azizov @ BA, Olimjon Makhmudovomm @ OMM, BKA and Murodjon Rakhimov @ MR involved in terror-related activities including spreading propaganda on social media and being part of a terrorist organization that remain active in the Middle East, especially Syria. They traveled to Indonesia on 29 Jan 23 via Istanbul – Abu Dhabi and entered Malaysia on 30 Jan 23. They later entered Indonesia on 6 and 27 Feb 23 separately. On 11 Apr 23, three of them tried to escape from the prison but two of them were arrested again while Bakhromjon Azizov, was found drowned in the river.

KTJ (formerly known as Jannat Oshiklari) is a terrorist organization that operates under the international terrorist organization Jabhat Al-Nusrah (now known as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham – HTS), the branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria. The group is under close monitoring by the US authorities because it has been listed in the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) category. Sharing of intelligence information has led to their arrest by DENSUS 88. The travel records of these KTJ members shown that Malaysia has been used as a transit but their presence did not show any threat. Their presence in Indonesia is believed to be related to expanding international networks as well as terrorist financing because on 14 Feb 23, South Korean security forces has arrested two KTJ members related to terrorism-financing.

On 15 Apr 23, two men were believed to be linked with Al-Qaeda network were killed and four others were arrested in a raid by DENSUS 88. All of them were arrested in an operation launched in two locations in Sumatra, Indonesia. The dead suspects, identified as NG and ZK, were killed after exchanging fires and injuring a police officer. NG has been on the wanted list of Indonesian police since 2016 for allegedly hiding suspects including Zulkarnaen, a senior JI leader who was arrested in 2020 after nearly 18 years of successfully evading from being arrested.

Sanctions and enforcement of anti-terror laws have almost paralyzed terrorist groups in Indonesia. However, the spread of terrorist narratives and ideologies are still prevalent in Indonesia, giving an indication that there are efforts to revive JI in Indonesia. These actions managed to bring Indonesia in the path of success because there was no major incident occured in Indonesia since January 2023.

The Philippines

The terrorism-related issues involving Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) are as follows:

On 6 May 23, an explosives expert of ASG was arrested in an operation in Sulu. The suspect, Ras Abdulla also known as Elhan Bahjin Abuhassan, aged 48, was detained in Kampung Bus-Bus, Jolo, Sulu and was a follower of Marzan Ajijul and Jomar Mohammad who is based in Zamboanga. These men are still at large and are being hunted by the authorities.

On 7 June 23, two ASG terrorists were killed in Sumisip, Basilan. The slain terrorist identified as “Dodong” was a follower of Mudzrimar Sawadjaan, a KAS leader based in Sulu while another with the nickname “Boy” was a follower of a ASG leader based in Basilan.

On 28 May 23, Philippines security forces arrested a leader and three followers of Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) and also confiscated firearms and explosives in Kampung Pabrika, Marugong, Lanao del Sur. All members of the DI group were teenagers between the ages of 14 and 18. A teenager named Abu Rasas, 18 years old, is one of the main DI leaders under the leadership of Fajarudin Pumbaya Pangalian

The arrest of a terrorist-suspect by the Philippine security forces has showcased the Philippine Government’s determination to curb terror-related activities in the South of the Philippines. In addition, the arrest has reduced the morale of other members of the ASG and DI terrorist groups because most of the senior leaders have been killed or arrested by the Philippine forces. The arrest of young DI leader also revealed that the group now relies on teenage members for their operations. Since 2020, the Southern of Philippine has shown drastic improvement from the security perspectives. This is clearly because of Philippines’ holistic approach to combat terrorism and to provide livelihood to its people in the south. In addition, the demise of Abu Zacharia on 14 June 23 has led Daesh under ISEAP to reshape the group’s direction and targets in the future. Therefore, the appointment of Abu Turaife as a new leader of DI has shown that they still require a charismatic leader who possesses great knowledge in Islam as well as radical movement.

Malaysia

On 11 Apr 23, Malaysia declared one of the ‘heirs’ of the Sultanate of Sulu has been classified as a terrorist effective 6 Apr 23, under Section 66 of the Anti-Money Laundering, Anti-Terrorist Financing and Proceeds of Illegal Activities Act 2001. The decision was made by the Ministry of Home Affairs against Fuad A. Kiram regarding his role in the Lahad Datu incident in Sabah 10 years ago. Fuad is also one of the eight individuals who claimed to be heirs to the Sultanate of Sulu, who was involved in an international legal dispute with Putrajaya over their claim for US$14.92 billion from Malaysia.

This shows that Malaysia has begun to take decisive actions on the demands of the heirs of the Sultanate of Sulu in order to safeguard its sovereignty. According to the Federal Gazette regarding the classification of Fuad as a terrorist, Muhammad Fuad Abdullah Kiram, has “participated and facilitated the commission of terrorist acts”. Meanwhile, the government has also prepared a special website dedicated to provide information on the Sulu case published in five languages ​​including Tagalog, French and Spanish with the aim of providing accurate information to the public and the international community. The act of classifying the individual involved as a terrorist is important because it will facilitate the actions of the security forces if the individual and his group carry out any activity in Malaysia. The classification is also to prevent Muhammad Fuad from taking unexpected actions.

On 11 May 23, the Deputy Prime Minister informed that Malaysia recorded the best achievement in dealing with terrorism when it was ranked 75^th through the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) last year, compared to 68^th in 2021. Meanwhile, Afghanistan is at the top rank in the GTI list. The trend of terror-related activities in Malaysia has decreased with only two cases of arrest last year compared to seven in 2021 due to several preventive and enforcement actions by the Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) and the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) as well as several measures taken by the National Security Council (NSC).

Malaysia should not be too complacent with the latest achievement because the benchmark for the index is only incidents and arrests of suspects compared to the current trends of terrorism The latest trend still highlights jihadists activities on social media to attract sympathy for the sufferings of Muslims who are oppressed especially in Syria and the ideology of establishing a Caliphate. In addition, the re-opening of national borders after travel restrictions during the spread of COVID-19 is also seen to change the position of the countries on the list. Thus, to maintain or improve this position, political stability and law enforcement are the significant elements. In addition, those elements need to be assisted with preventive measures through the Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) strategies to deal with the threat of terrorism in the country.

Conclusion

Terrorism incidents at the global and regional level still show a significant increase for the period of the Second Quarter of 2023 in line with the opening of the international borders. At the global level, countries such as Afghanistan, Cameroon, Iraq, Libya, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Serbia, Somalia, Syria and Turkey continue to receive threats of terrorism due to on-going conflicts while there are new countries that have similar indicators such as Italy and Canada. However, there are countries that proactive in combating terrorism and they are the likes of Nigeria and Somalia. Somalia together with the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) carried out a series of raids on Al-Shabaab’s strongholds to achieve the goal of eliminating the threat while the Nigerian government has succeeded in countering up to 80% of the Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorist groups. Despite increased efforts to combat terrorism, terrorists on the African continent still play the narrative of establishing an Islamic state to their advantage. The China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Trilateral Foreign Minister’s Dialogue held in Islamabad is seen as an effort taken by the three countries in dealing with the threat of terrorism in their respective countries. The turmoil in Afghanistan allows terrorist groups such as ETIM and TeT to make it as a hub for training and a safe haven. Countries such as China and Pakistan have intensified operations against terrorist groups. While the statement of the President of Turkey regarding the success of killing the leader of Daesh, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi continues to be a question mark. This would allow Daesh to continue their agenda in a decentralized manner as a “Khalifah” needs to declared soon.

On the other hand, the development of the threat of terrorism in the Southeast Asian region shows most countries continue to implement proactive measures to prevent the threat of terrorism. A series of recent arrests also indicate that security threats in Indonesia are beginning to increase and for that, security controls in few hot spots need to be improved. The hybrid action of the Philippines which is the combination of kinetic approach (hard approach) and PCVE (soft approach) continues to have a positive impact at this time until it succeeds in putting great pressure on terrorists such as ASG especially in Sulu until these terrorists have to seek refuge in Basilan. KTJ, a terrorist organization operating under Jabhat Al-Nusrah, is believed to be linked in expanding international networks and funding terrorism in Indonesia because South Korean security forces also has arrested two members of KTJ in connection with terrorist financing activities.

The Malaysian government began to take decisive action on the claim of the heirs of the Sultanate of Sulu by classifying Muhammad Fuad Abdullah Kiram as a terrorist entity in addition to providing a special website dedicated to posting information on the Sulu case with the aim of providing accurate information to the public and the international communities. The act of classifying the individual involved as a terrorist is important because it will facilitate the actions of the security forces if the individual and his group carry out any activities in Malaysia. While Malaysia’s latest achievement in ranking 75^th in the GTI still does not show the real situation because the latest trend of jihadists is trying to attract sympathy for the suffering of oppressed Muslims and the ideology of establishing a Caliphate through the spread of narratives on social media. Those elements need to be supported with preventive measures through the PCVE strategy in combating terrorism in the country.

In general, the global and regional threat posed by terrorism is beginning to intensify. However, the drastic actions taken by the involved countries have mitigated this increase. The threat perception has shifted to include the spreading of propaganda in cyberspace, such as on social media. There should be continuous monitoring and restrictions placed on such postings that pose a threat to national security before it starts to influence Daesh supporters in Malaysia. The issue of terrorism on a global and regional scale has no effect on national security at this time. As such, national security and the threat of terrorism should not be treated lightly. The potential threat of terrorism in the nation remains at a moderate level and a terrorist attack remains possible.