The first quarter of Terrorism Watch 2026 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from January to March 2026.
At the global level, countries such as Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Nigeria continue to face persistent terrorist threats due to unresolved internal conflicts. The internal conflict in Syria, which has seen the withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) also has the potential to increase security threats globally, particularly as a number of individuals linked to Daesh were reportedly able to escape from Al-Hol Camp. This development creates opportunities for the regrouping and strengthening of the group’s network, while also increasing the risk of renewed recruitment and mobilisation of extremist elements in conflict areas. In addition, an increase in terrorism-related threats involving lone wolf actors has also been identified since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran in early March 2026. This conflict has encouraged certain individuals or groups to express support for parties aligned with their respective ideologies, thereby increasing the risk of lone wolf actor that are difficult to detect at an early stage.
At the regional level, the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia remains a serious concern. In Indonesia, reports concerning two primary school children exposed to violent extremist ideology indicate that the phenomenon of radicalisation is increasingly spreading among the youths. This situation illustrates how unrestricted access to the internet and online games has contributed to the emergence of self-radicalisation processes occurring quietly, driven by uncontrolled exposure to extremist content through social media. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, terrorist acts are still assessed to be concentrated in certain areas such as Maguindanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte, orchestrated by the terrorist group, Dawlah Islamiyah (DI). Despite this, the Philippine security forces have showcased the efficiency of their operational, tactical, and intelligence capabilities by neutralising a high-ranking leader of the group in a targeted security operation. This progress indicates that while the threat of terrorism still exists, the threat level in the Philippines seems to be slowly diminishing due to ongoing efforts and proactive actions taken by the security forces.
In Malaysia, the national threat level remains at a moderate stage, indicating the possibility of an attack but with no specific or confirmed threat identified. Although the risk of physical attacks remains low, the spread of online radicalisation and the dissemination of extremist narratives in public spaces continue to be key areas of concern. Similar to the situation in Indonesia, the detention of six teenagers last march indicates a shift in the pattern of terrorism threats in Malaysia focusing on digital radicalisation involving youths. This case demonstrates that teenagers, including children, are increasingly being exposed to extremist propaganda through online communication and gaming platforms such as Discord and Roblox. The use of these platforms reflects the evolution of extremist groups’ tactics in targeting the younger generation in a more focused, covert, and difficult-to-detect way. This development calls for a more comprehensive and integrated approach involving all levels of institutions, including family institutions, educational institutions, and security agencies. The role of parents in monitoring their children’s online activities and fostering critical thinking is crucial in preventing the spread of extremist ideologies from taking root from an early stage.
INTRODUCTION
Throughout various countries, the first quarter of 2026 has been characterised by significant developments, with terrorist and militant groups sustaining their activities in conflict areas to consolidate and strengthen their influence.
The following are the highlights of recent terrorism-related occurrences around the world:
a. Pakistan.
(1) On 6 Feb 26, a suicide bombing took place at Khadija al-Kubra Mosque in Islamabad during Friday prayers. The incident resulted in the deaths of 32 worshippers and left 162 others injured. Pakistan’s Minister of Home Affairs and Minister of Defence blamed India and Afghanistan of involvement in the attack. However, both governments dismissed the accusations and denied any participation. Follow-up actions by the Pakistani security forces successfully led to the arrest of four individuals suspected of coordinating the attack. A terrorist group linked to Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack.
(2) On 17 Feb 26, a total of 11 members of the Pakistani security forces and one child lost their lives, while 25 others sustained injuries in multiple suicide bombing incidents in Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The attack was believed to have been orchestrated by the terrorist group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The group reportedly rammed a vehicle laden with explosives into a military checkpoint located at the border entry.
(3) The bombing incident highlights the continuing threat posed by the terrorist group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the persistent Daesh factions still active in the country. The objectives of these terrorist organisations encompass prominent regions like the capital city of Pakistan and various chosen hotspots. The event highlights the resurgence of TTP activities, as the organisation seems to grow bolder in executing assaults on major urban and strategic areas, thereby raising the potential for large-scale attacks in the future. The accusations regarding the participation of the two countries constitute a sensitive issue that Pakistan should avoid. Those accusations might potentially lead to prolonged tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which may undermine regional stability, particularly within the context of South Asian security. To curb the possibility of further similar attacks, Pakistani security forces are anticipated to strengthen security cooperation and intelligence exchange with international partners, particularly neighboring countries and strategic allies. Pakistani security forces are also likely to intensify military and intelligence operations in the northwestern regions of the country, as well as along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border, in order to track terrorist networks and disrupt their logistical support channels.
b. Somalia.
(1) On 24 Feb 26, Somalia’s intelligence agency, alongside the security forces, conducted four coordinated operations that effectively neutralised 23 members of the terrorist group Al-Shabaab. The operations were conducted in the regions near Shabelle and Hiiraan. Based on an official statement from the intelligence agency, the offensive operations were launched based on intelligence information confirming that elements of the group were preparing to carry out attacks on several towns in the surrounding areas. The implementation of these operations is believed to have foiled the group’s attack plans and weakened its operational capabilities within the affected sectors.
(2) On 6 Feb 26, National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) conducted a major operation in Bu’aale, Middle Juba Region, recognized as a stronghold of Al-Shabaab. The operation targeted the group’s administrative and political headquarters, as well as its sophisticated media and propaganda centers, including facilities used for Radio Al-Andalus broadcasts and the Al-Kataib media unit. The goal was to dismantle the group’s unofficial administrative framework and hinder its capacity to spread radical media content. Based on intelligence reports, NISA effectively eliminated broadcasting equipment, advanced cameras, and data servers employed for the group’s propaganda activities. The operation also neutralised multiple terrorist elements, while dismantling vital assets that support Al-Shabaab’s logistics and media operations in Bu’aale.
(3) The effectiveness of Somalia’s intelligence agency in breaking up Al-Shabaab’s activities illustrates the increasing proficiency and effectiveness of Somali security force intelligence operations. The successful neutralisation of militant elements on the ground, along with the dismantling of administrative and propaganda infrastructure in Bu’aale, has both diminished the group’s operational abilities and disrupted its command structure, communications, and ideological dissemination network. The discovery of sophisticated propaganda equipment indicates that the organisation prioritises social media as a as a medium for disseminating information to potential supporters, thus boosting its ability to recruit new members. In this regard, Somali security forces must ensure the continuity of operational pressure and intelligence enhancement to ensure that these tactical successes can be translated into long-term strategic outcomes.
c. Syria.
(1) On 27 Jan 26, tensions and violence broke out against the Syrian security forces at Al-Hol Camp, leading to a large-scale escape involving detainees. Multiple detainees allegedly assaulted the security personnel, causing chaos within the camp area. Due to the incident, several detainees were believed to have successfully escaped before the security forces managed to regain control of the situation.
(2) On 21 Feb 26, Daesh claimed responsibility for several armed attacks in the Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor regions in eastern Syria. The attacks included shootings involving pistols and automatic weapons targeting members of the Syrian government forces as well as civilians in areas such as Al-Mayadin and the rural outskirts of Raqqa, resulting in the deaths of at least one soldier and one civilian, while several others were injured.
(3) This extensive escape event reveals vulnerabilities in security measures following the takeover of the camp by Syrian government troops from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The aggression aimed at the Syrian security forces was probably a response from detainees who had been confined in the camp for a long time. They subsequently exploited the administrative tensions to escape. The incident poses an ongoing security threat to the nearby regions, as the escaped prisoners consist of individuals previously associated with Daesh or Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs). The risk of extremist ideology spreading and the re-recruitment of escaped detainees is extremely high. If recidivism were to rise, it could bolster militant personnel resources and consequently endanger the security of surrounding areas. Daesh announced that the attacks were part of a new operational phase targeting the Syrian leadership and aimed to show that Daesh cell networks continue to be active and able to execute armed attacks. This occurrence highlights the revival of Daesh militant actions in eastern Syria, particularly in desert areas and remote towns, affecting the local security environment and compelling Syrian security forces and their allies to intensify security operations to curb the group’s re-emergence.
d. Nigeria.
(1) On 1 Mar 25, the terrorist group Boko Haram launched an attack on a military base at the Banki junction in Borno, Nigeria. The attack, which occurred at around 0400 hours, resulted in the death of a military officer holding the rank of Major, along with several other security personnel.
(2) On 19 Jan 26, Boko Haram group attacked a Nigerian military in Borno State, killing at least eight soldiers and injuring around 50 others in the Timbuktu Triangle area. The military reported that they had earlier eliminated multiple militant bases in the region and thwarted a planned assault involving a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED), which included the demolition of a vehicle filled with explosives. Nonetheless, a second VBIED succeeded in penetrating defensive lines, resulting in the deaths of several soldiers and members of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF).
(3) Based on both incidents, the attacks carried out by Boko Haram demonstrate that the group still maintains significant operational capability despite sustained pressure from Nigerian security forces. The attack patterns employed, including the use of Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED) and assaults on military bases during early morning hours, reflect a level of structured tactical planning and the ability to penetrate security defences. The success of certain militant groups in overcoming perimeter security despite early preventive actions reveals gaps in defensive layers and emphasises the necessity to improve preparedness and early warning systems. A more integrated operational approach involving strengthened intelligence capabilities, improved base defence systems, and rapid response capacity is critical to curbing the group’s freedom of movement and sustained attack capability.
e. United States
(1) On 1 Mar 26, a man identified as Ndiaga Diagne, aged 53, opened fire indiscriminately at a bar in Texas, resulting in the deaths of two civilians and injuries to 14 others. Preliminary investigations by local authorities found that the suspect possessed images related to Iranian leadership and was reportedly wearing clothing featuring the Iranian flag during the incident.
(2) On 12 Mar 26, a former terrorism convict carried out a random shooting targeting military personnel member. The incident, which occurred at Constant Hall, resulted in the death of a senior military officer, while two other personnel were seriously injured. The attack began at approximately 10:43 a.m. inside a lecture hall being used for a Military Science programme. The suspect, identified as Mohamed Bailor Jalloh, aged 36, was reportedly heard shouting “Allahu Akbar” shortly before opening fire on individuals inside the room. Nevertheless, a group of students from the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) program who were at the location effectively halted the suspect’s actions. The students physically overpowered the suspect, who was pronounced dead at the scene before police arrived. The suspect was a United States citizen of Sierra Leonean origin residing in Sterling.
(3) Amid ongoing conflicts and rising geopolitical tensions, nations allied with the United States are likely to keep encountering internal security issues. These threats are not only manifested through proxy operations but are also reinforced by the increase in lone wolf activities carried out by individuals acting independently while being influenced by extremist narratives or global geopolitical sentiments.
f. United Kingdom
(1) On 24 Mar 26, four ambulances belonging to a Jewish voluntary emergency service in north London were deliberately set on fire in an incident being investigated as an anti-Semitic hate crime. The event took place in the Golders Green region and involved flammable substances, leading to explosions from oxygen tanks and damage to nearby houses but no injuries were reported. Law enforcement agencies, including anti-terrorism are presently carrying out investigations and tracking down several suspects identified via CCTV footage.
(2) Although the incident is being investigated as a hate-motivated act driven by anti-Semitic sentiment, the attack has also been linked to the conflict between the United States and Iran. There were also claims of responsibility by a group allegedly associated with Iran, although this has yet to be verified. These three attack events demonstrate that extremist ideologies no longer require direct instructions from terrorist organisations to trigger acts of violence. These circumstances also illustrate that global conflicts can impact on the domestic security of nearby nations. The spread of propaganda through social media and cyberspace enables radicalisation processes to occur rapidly and covertly, thereby producing perpetrators who are difficult for authorities to detect. Additionally, the growing tendency towards high-impact yet low-cost attacks, such as the use of firearms or improvised explosive devices, further increases the level of threat to public security.
TERRORISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
INDONESIA
On 5 Jan 26, two primary school students were reportedly exposed to elements of radicalism through the online game Roblox in Sampit, Kotawaringin Timur Regency, Indonesia. The students were subsequently added to a WhatsApp group believed to operate as a platform for spreading propaganda as well as recruiting new members.
The exposure of two primary school students in Indonesia to radical ideology serves as a significant reminder of the evolving pattern of terrorism threats in the digital era. Clearly, this incident is not merely an isolated issue involving individuals; rather, it reflects a systemic phenomenon in which extremist ideologies are increasingly exploiting children through seemingly harmless platforms such as online games and digital communication channels. In this case, the radicalisation process appeared to begin through social interactions within online video games before the children were added to closed communication groups such as WhatsApp, where violent content and extremist ideologies were gradually disseminated. This pattern aligns with the worldwide trend of digital radicalisation, whereby cyberspace is used as preliminary filtering method before deeper indoctrination processes are carried out in closed and difficult-to-detect environments.
THE PHILIPPINES
On 8 Mar 26, Philippine security forces carried out an operation that successfully eliminated a senior leader of the terrorist group Dawlah Islamiyah–Hassan Group (DI-HG), identified as Emarudin Kulaw, in the town of Banisilan, North Cotabato, Philippines. Law enforcement also confiscated multiple firearms at the location. Besides being a prominent leader, Alpha King was recognised as one of the experts in creating Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for the DI-HG group.
The death of a key figure within the Dawlah Islamiyah–Hassan Group (DI-HG) marks a significant development in the security landscape of Southern Philippines, with the clear potential to weaken the group’s organisational structure, disrupt its communication network, and hinder the planning of future terrorist attacks. The loss of this senior figure is expected to incite internal rifts and power conflicts among group members. If such situations occur, it will indirectly provide an advantage to the Philippine security forces in conducting follow-up operations to dismantle the remaining active militant cells.
However, from a counterterrorism standpoint, tactical successes by the security forces do not necessarily eliminate the threat entirely. Philippine security forces are expected to continue intensifying security operations against the remnants of terrorist groups that have long established a presence in the country, in order to ensure that public safety and societal stability remain protected.
MALAYSIA
On 14 Feb 26, the Royal Malaysia Police apprehended six individuals, including three minors, suspected of plotting attacks against police stations and government facilities. All male individuals aged between 16 and 21 years old were detained in the Klang Valley, Johor, Kedah, and Terengganu on 14 and 15 February under suspicion of being involved in supporting the terrorist organisation Daesh, which includes disseminating radical ideologies, recruiting new members, and promoting propaganda materials online. The detentions were carried out in accordance with procedures under the Security Offences (Special Measures) Act 2012 (SOSMA). All suspects are being investigated under Chapter 6A of the Penal Code relating to terrorism offences and may face multiple charges, including Section 130J for promoting terrorist groups as well as becoming or claiming to be members of terrorist organisations, and Section 130JB for possessing, preparing, displaying, or distributing materials related to terrorist groups.
CONCLUSION
At the global level, countries such as Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Nigeria still encounter terrorist due to ongoing internal unrest. At the same time, extremist sentiments and hate-based ideologies continue to be exploited by supporters and sympathisers of terrorist groups to garner public backing and expand their influence within society. The use of digital platforms and social media has accelerated the widespread dissemination of such narratives, making them increasingly difficult to control. The geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States has also contributed to instability among various parties at the international level. Variations in ideology and beliefs have prompted specific individuals and groups to express support for parties aligned with their respective interests, thereby creating polarisation within communities. This situation indirectly provides opportunities for groups such as Daesh to exploit such tensions, particularly by manipulating economic pressures and feelings of injustice among affected individuals. In this context, the risk of the resurgence of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs), as well as the increasing threat posed by lone wolf actors, is expected to continue expanding at both the global and regional levels.
The terrorism threat level in Malaysia remains at a moderate level, with the possibility of attack incidents still existing although without any clear or specific indicators. Nevertheless, there are ongoing concerns regarding the involvement of certain individuals within society in promoting particular ideologies through social media platforms. Although the risk of physical threats is currently assessed to be low, the development of online radicalisation and the spread of extremist ideologies in public spaces require close monitoring and continuous preventive measures to ensure that the country’s security and stability remain safeguarded.
Overall, the threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels is expected to persist and continue to pose concerns for countries worldwide. The extensive use of social media in daily life has become a key enabler of extremist propaganda dissemination, increasing the likelihood of lone-wolf actors and making it more difficult for authorities to detect and prevent threats at an early stage. In this regard, enhanced regional cooperation and intelligence sharing among nations remain crucial to ensure that any form of local threat or movement involving Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) can be identified and addressed in a comprehensive and coordinated manner.