The first quarter of Terrorism Watch 2025 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from January to March 2025.
Countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria continue to experience terrorism as a result of persistent hostilities. Terrorist organisations frequently exploit the Israel-Palestine conflict to incite solitary assaults. Anti-Semitic feelings are persistently exploited by proponents and sympathisers of terrorist organisations to garner support. The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria may precipitate a new surge of global terrorism and potentially facilitate the resurrection of Daesh.
The proliferation of extremism, radicalism, and terrorist ideologies via media in Southeast Asia continues to rise, particularly in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Preventive efforts such as arrests, aimed at deterring attacks, along with PCVE actions implemented by authorities in all nations, are regarded as efficient in managing terrorist activity.
Malaysia remains proactive by implementing early preventive measures to ensure that its citizens do not adopt terrorist ideologies that could endanger national security. Ongoing instability in West Asia and the shift in Daesh’s operational base may influence the movement of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and the patterns of terrorist activity. Furthermore, the growing spread of extremist ideologies in Southern Thailand poses additional risks due to the extensive land border shared between Malaysia and Thailand.
In summary, the first quarter of 2025 has witnessed a rise in both global and regional terrorist threats. As terrorist groups adapt to technological advancements, a comprehensive and coordinated response from all relevant authorities is essential to counteract terrorism. Nations, especially within this region, must implement decisive measures to address the growing challenge.
INTRODUCTION
Several significant developments occurred in various countries during the first quarter of 2025. The threat of terrorism has notably escalated at both global and regional levels, with emerging trends particularly evident in Europe and Africa. The risk has grown more pronounced following the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Terrorist groups, especially Daesh, continue to effectively exploit social media platforms to spread their ideology. Agencies such as the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and the Royal Malaysian Police (RMP) must conduct regular surveillance of social media and video-sharing platforms like YouTube, as such content can pose a threat to national security and may need to be restricted for Malaysian users when necessary.
The following are the highlights of recent terrorism-related occurrences around the world:
a. Afghanistan.
(1) On 11 Feb 25, a series of suicide bombings took place targeting a gathering in front of Kabul Bank in Kunduz. The attack, orchestrated by the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) terrorist group, killed at least 18 people, while 14 others were injured. Most of the victims were members of the Taliban security forces.
(2) The surge in ISKP attacks in Afghanistan underscores the country’s persistent instability. Since 2021, the Taliban-led government has been viewed as unable to fully maintain national security. These terrorist incidents not only heighten safety concerns within Afghanistan but also threaten the stability of neighboring countries like Iran and Pakistan, as Afghanistan is increasingly seen as a refuge for extremist groups. Additionally, such attacks appear aimed at discouraging foreign investment and portraying the Afghan government as ineffective in safeguarding the nation. ISKP is anticipated to intensify its assaults, particularly targeting government leaders and Taliban security personnel, in an effort to maintain Daesh’s presence and influence within the country.
b. United States.
(1) On 1 Jan 25, a tragic incident occurred on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, United States, where a four-wheel drive vehicle plowed into a crowd, resulting in 15 civilian deaths and injuring over 30 others. The attacker, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. citizen and military veteran who served as an IT specialist in Afghanistan around 2009, was identified at the scene. Initial investigations by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have deemed the event a terrorist act, based on the discovery of a Daesh flag, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and firearms inside the vehicle.
(2) Vehicle-ramming attacks targeting civilians in the United States are not a new phenomenon. However, the recent incident in New Orleans has garnered widespread attention due to its apparent connection to terrorism. Preliminary evidence, including a video recording in which the suspect expressed support for the Daesh terrorist group and declared his intent to carry out an attack, suggests premeditation. This event highlights how lone-wolf tactics are increasingly being adopted by terrorist actors to execute their operations. In response, U.S. authorities are expected to strengthen security measures to prevent similar attacks. Additionally, the incident presents a major challenge for the newly inaugurated U.S. President, who must navigate national security concerns while addressing public sentiment and working to prevent the escalation of Islamophobia within American society.
c. Pakistan.
(1) On 2 Feb 25, two separate military operations in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province led to the deaths of 18 Pakistani soldiers and 23 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. In the Harnai district, 11 TTP fighters were killed and several of their fortified positions were dismantled. Meanwhile, another 12 militants were eliminated during an attempted roadblock operation in Mangocher, located in the Kalat District.
(2) The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) launched a deadly assault in Bolan, Balochistan, killing at least 31 people and hijacking a passenger train carrying hundreds. During the incident, 33 BLA members were also killed. The attack began when the Jaffer Express, traveling from Quetta to Peshawar, was taken over by BLA militants as it entered a tunnel in the Sibi area. The group initially released 104 hostages—58 men, 31 women, and 15 children—while the remaining captives were only freed after the Pakistani government met the group’s demands.
(3) Pakistan has experienced a sharp increase in terrorist incidents, especially in the Balochistan region. The country’s security forces have responded promptly to threats, particularly efforts by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to launch attacks aimed at creating instability by targeting civilians. In addition, the insurgency by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has escalated following the leasing of Gwadar Port to China under the Belt and Road Initiative. The BLA perceives this development as serving the interests of China and the Pakistani government, while offering no tangible benefits to the economically disadvantaged Baloch population. Pakistan’s security forces have remained resolute in their efforts to combat terrorism, reflecting the government’s strong commitment to regional stability. Nevertheless, the continued wave of attacks by militant groups is likely to hinder the progress of security operations in Balochistan.
d. Somalia.
(1) On 21 Jan 25, seven members of the Somali National Army (SNA) and 15 Daesh Somalia militants were killed in two separate battles in the Puntland region of Somalia. The first clash occurred when an improvised explosive device (IED) planted by Daesh militants detonated as the Somali forces were conducting mine clearance operations. The second clash ensued during a military operation conducted in the vicinity of Laba-Afle.
(2) On 11 Feb 25, a coordinated attacks by Daesh Somalia militants targeted a security base in Puntland, leading to the fatalities of 27 Puntland security personnel and over 70 Daesh militants, with approximately 60 others sustaining injuries. The attack, which occurred in the rugged terrain of Togga Jacel in the Cal Miskaad Mountain range, involved a suicide bombing operation in which both vehicles and motorcycles, packed with explosives, were driven into the base.
(3) The Somali branch of Daesh has concentrated its activities in the Puntland region, taking advantage of Al-Shabaab’s declining dominance there, unlike its firm control in southern Somalia. Although Daesh remains smaller in size compared to Al-Shabaab, which is affiliated with Al-Qaeda, recent developments show a significant rise in its operations. This increase is largely driven by an estimated growth in its ranks to about 600 members, fueled by new recruits from the Middle East as well as Eastern and Northern Africa. The expansion is also believed to be connected to Daesh’s strategic shift of its central leadership from Syria to Somalia. Clashes between Daesh and Puntland security forces have intensified, especially after Puntland escalated counter-terrorism efforts in early February 2025. Despite collaborative efforts with the United States to limit Daesh’s influence, completely eliminating the group remains a long-term challenge due to continued support from foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). As a result, Puntland is expected to enhance its border security to block external aid that could strengthen Daesh’s presence in the region.
e. Syria.
(1) On 15 Feb 25, a senior Daesh leader from Iraq was captured in Syria on charges of recruiting foreign fighters and orchestrating terrorist attacks. Syrian intelligence confirmed the arrest of the individual, identified by the alias Abu al-Harith Al-Iraqi. The suspect is believed to have held a significant role in Iraq, overseeing the recruitment of foreign militants and being heavily involved in planning terrorist activities. Al-Iraqi is also suspected of masterminding the assassination plot against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Maysar al-Jubouri and is thought to have led a Daesh cell dismantled on January 11, 2025, which was planning an attack on the Sayyida Zainab Shrine, a key religious site for Shia Muslims near Damascus.
(2) On 9 March 25, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with the backing of the US-led Global Coalition, successfully captured a senior Daesh leader during a military operation in al-Busaira, Deir ez-Zor. The operation resulted in the arrest of Khalid Marbab Ubaid, also known as Abu Omar. This Daesh operative was a key figure in supplying weapons and ammunition to Daesh sleeper cells responsible for a series of attacks targeting SDF forces, security personnel, and civilians throughout Syria.
(3) Daesh continues to pose a significant threat in Syria, with an increasing number of attacks reported throughout 2024. Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Daesh has capitalized on the ongoing instability, targeting key SDF strongholds and attempting to free detained members from SDF-controlled prisons. Several Daesh cells are believed to remain active in central and eastern Syria. The interim Syrian government, now led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which played a key role in overthrowing the Assad regime, currently controls large portions of Syria, including the capital, Damascus. Despite HTS’s extremist affiliations, it continues to receive support from several countries, including Turkey. The SDF’s decision to transfer authority over its prisons to the interim government is expected to enhance cooperation with HTS and improve control over detained Daesh militants.
TERRORISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
INDONESIA
On 5 Feb 25, Indonesia’s Special Anti-Terrorism Detachment (Densus 88) apprehended an individual suspected of terrorist involvement in Kampung Cicubung, Cipacing Village, Pagerageung District, Tasikmalaya Regency. The suspect, identified by the codename TE, aged 52, originally from Bandung. Indonesian security forces also conducted a search of the suspect’s residence and seized several items for further investigation.
On 27 Feb 25, Indonesia’s National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) detained 14 Indonesian who had been previously apprehended and deported by Turkish authorities for attempting to enter Syria with the intent to engage in terrorist activities. Upon their repatriation, all individuals were placed in a detention facility in Bogor, West Java, for assessment and profiling. They are also scheduled to undergo a deradicalisation program tailored to their respective regions.
Recent arrests by Indonesian security forces highlight that the country continues to face a persistent terrorism threat. The isolated behavior of the suspects requires close attention, as such detachment can foster self-radicalization, potentially leading to lone-wolf attacks, similar to the tragic event in Ulu Tiram, Johor. The attempts by Indonesians to join foreign terrorist groups in Syria suggest that the idea of establishing an Islamic Caliphate in Syria still appeals to some, despite its collapse in 2019. In response, the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) has implemented a comprehensive deradicalization approach, which includes rehabilitation, vocational training, and social reintegration. BNPT’s efforts target not only those directly involved in terrorism but also individuals at risk of adopting extremist ideologies. This structured approach, carried out through deradicalization centers functioning as “educational institutions,” aims to effectively alter the mindset of those sympathetic to terrorist groups.
THE PHILIPPINES
On 22 Jan 25, two Philippine soldiers were killed, and 12 others sustained injuries in a well-coordinated ambush orchestrated by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Sumisip, Basilan. The attack, meticulously planned by Commander Alharan with an estimated force of 20 militants, was supported by followers of commanders Mande, Mamir, and Malangka. The assailants targeted a Philippine security convoy as it traveled along a primary route under MILF control.
On 2 Feb 25, a Moro civilian was killed, and a Philippine security intelligence officer was wounded in an armed attack in Radjah Buayan, Maguindanao del Sur. The deceased was identified as Jabber Amil Ambal, a resident of Dapantis village. The incident occurred when Ambal and the intelligence officer were approached by an assailant on a motorcycle, who then opened fire on them.
On 17 March 25, four militants from the Dawlah Islamiyah-Hassan Group (DI-HG) were neutralised during a clash with Philippine security forces in Barangay Barira, Maguindanao del Norte. The deceased were identified as Pudin, Mustapha Kasan Kulaw (also known as Abu Saiden), Abdullah, and one unidentified individual. Pudin, notably, was the son of Emarudin Kasan Kulaw, also known as Alpha King, a deputy leader of the DI-HG faction. In the aftermath of the operation, Philippine forces uncovered two improvised explosive devices (IEDs), a Daesh flag, two M16 rifles, and other materials linked to terrorist activities.
This ambush incident presents a major challenge to the ongoing peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). While the MILF leadership has shown a willingness to collaborate with the government to finalize the peace agreement, it is clear that a faction within the group remains deeply committed to extremist ideologies and violent tactics. Furthermore, the MILF has emphasized the need for coordination with Philippine security forces whenever operations take place in MILF-controlled territories. This step is vital to avoid misunderstandings or incidents like the Mamasapano tragedy of 2015. A cooperative effort between the government and the MILF would likely yield positive outcomes if both sides take active roles in addressing terrorism within the country.
While an increasing number of terrorist members have either surrendered or been captured by Philippine security forces, a persistent core of active insurgents from various extremist groups continues to remain a threat. The recent attacks targeting the Moro population are likely a reaction to the peace process between the government and the MILF, which has led to significant disadvantages for these groups. Philippine security forces continue to apply pressure on the remaining terrorist factions still operating in the Southern Philippines. Although there has been a rise in the number of members from groups like Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) surrendering, certain splinter factions still firmly adhere to extremist ideologies and violent tactics. Philippine security forces are expected to further strengthen and refine their counterterrorism efforts to maintain sustained pressure on these remaining groups, ensuring that the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) elections on October 13, 2025, can be held without violent incidents.
THAILAND
On 21 Feb 25, a facebook user “RedWoolYT” was found to have added Thai-language subtitles to a Daesh-produced video aimed at inciting lone-wolf attacks and glorifying jihad. The individual further propagated Daesh-related content, including jihadist ideologies and pro-war rhetoric, through platforms such as Telegram and other associated web portals.
This action highlights Daesh’s efforts to spread its violent ideology in Southern Thailand. Although youth involvement in the separatist movement in Southern Thailand remains relatively limited, global issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict can unintentionally serve as a trigger, attracting sympathizers to participate in jihad under Daesh’s banner. The inclusion of Thai subtitles by individuals is seen as a strategy to ensure that this violent narrative reaches all segments of society in Southern Thailand. In this context, efforts to monitor and prevent the spread of extremist content, especially on digital platforms, are becoming increasingly vital and should be prioritized. Additionally, proactive measures such as improving public awareness and digital literacy are essential for identifying early signs of radicalization and preventing such attacks. Cooperation between authorities and telecommunication companies is also crucial for effectively detecting and blocking the spread of this harmful content.
SINGAPORE
The Singaporean government deported an Iranian woman and her Malaysian husband, both of whom had Permanent Resident (PR) status in Singapore, over suspected ties to terrorist activities. The couple’s travel agency was allegedly involved in facilitating visa applications for suspected terrorists to enter Singapore. The individuals were identified as Parvane Heidaridehkordi (38, Iran) and Soo Thean Ling (65, Malaysia).
The arrests made by Singapore’s security forces highlight the potential for terrorist activities, whether directly or indirectly, to take place within the country. The involvement of the Iran-Malaysia couple in terrorism-related actions serves as a significant sign, suggesting that Singapore could become a “transit hub” for terrorist organizations operating in Southeast Asia. The couple’s interfaith background also points to the possibility that Singapore faces not only Islamic extremist groups but also other forms of terrorism, such as Hindutva, Neo-Nazi, and Far-right ideologies. Singapore’s security forces are expected to further strengthen their efforts to combat all forms of terrorism within the country. Stringent measures will likely be implemented against individuals or groups suspected of terrorism-related activities, including funding. In addition, enhanced security protocols at the country’s main entry points and borders will be put in place to prevent potential terrorist threats. Cooperation from the public is expected to be crucial in ensuring the continued safety, stability, and peace of Singapore.
MALAYSIA
The national level of terrorist threat is now being effectively managed. The cumulative number of apprehensions in the nation pertaining to persons associated with Daesh terrorist and militant networks from 2013 to the present stands at around 584, comprising 200 non-nationals and 384 domestic residents.
On 14 Feb 25, a propaganda poster related to an attack in the KLCC area was sent by an individual known as “DAWLAH ISLAM” in a WhatsApp chat group named “ALBAQOROH – 256.” The chat group was created by an individual believed to be an Indonesian citizen, based on the phone number records and the language spoken by the individual. A total of 428 members from 10 countries have joined the group, including Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, Canada, Nigeria, Singapore, Timor-Leste, Taiwan, India, and Saudi Arabia. There are 24 members of the chat group using phone numbers registered in Malaysia.
On 22 March 25, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)—an independent think tank based in Sydney, Australia—released the 2025 Global Terrorism Index. According to the report, Malaysia has fallen to 52nd place, a significant drop from 81st position in 2024, largely attributed to the attack on the Ulu Tiram Police Station. GTI is published annually to evaluate the global impact of terrorism across more than 160 countries. It measures factors such as the number of terrorist incidents, fatalities, injuries, and damage to property. Burkina Faso remains at the top of the index, holding the highest position since a military coup in September 2022, which caused terrorist groups to manipulate the country’s instability.
A WhatsApp group has been identified as a platform for communication among Daesh sympathizers from various countries. Members of this group, particularly Malaysians, pose a potential risk of becoming lone-wolf attackers, similar to the Ulu Tiram incident, if not adequately monitored and subjected to appropriate enforcement actions. As a result, increased surveillance by relevant authorities, including the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), in collaboration with the Royal Malaysia Police (RMP) and other security agencies, is essential to prevent the spread of extremist and radical content on social media platforms that promote Daesh narratives and ensure they are inaccessible to the Malaysian public. Furthermore, without addressing this issue wisely through Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) awareness programs, self-radicalization and future terrorist attacks are likely to recur.
The current situation has had a moderate impact on Malaysia, particularly in the tourism industry, as many countries use the Global Terrorism Index as a reference for their travel advisories. However, it is crucial to recognize that the index does not fully reflect the actual terrorism threat in Malaysia, especially when considering the evolving trends of terrorist ideologies spreading through social media. Emerging patterns continue to highlight the growth of Jihadist propaganda, particularly from regional actors who aim to garner sympathy by highlighting the struggles of oppressed Muslim communities—especially in Palestine—while simultaneously promoting the idea of establishing a Caliphate through social media campaigns. To improve the situation, political stability and effective law enforcement are essential. These must be strengthened with proactive measures, such as the implementation of the Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) strategy, to effectively combat terrorism within the country.
CONCLUSION
The global threat of terrorism remains deeply alarming, with a notable increase in lone-wolf attacks fueled by hate, particularly in response to Israel’s breaches of ceasefire agreements during the Ramadan period. These incidents have amplified anti-Semitic sentiments, which are being strategically used by supporters and sympathizers of terrorist organizations to gain traction and incite violence, including calls for attacks at major events in Western countries, like the recent incident in New Orleans, United States. Daesh continues to capitalize on the instability in Syria, launching assaults on Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) strongholds and making several attempts to free its members detained in SDF-controlled prisons. Moreover, intelligence reports suggest a shift in Daesh’s operational base to Somalia, with an influx of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) from the Middle East, Eastern, and Northern Africa, strengthening the group’s presence and activities in the region. This shift indicates a potential change in FTF migration patterns, along with an anticipated rise in terrorist activities across Africa, marking a significant change in the group’s geographic focus and operational tactics.
Furthermore, the spread of extremism, radicalism, and terrorism ideologies across Southeast Asia remains deeply persistent and aggressive, particularly in the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. These group continue to exploit the digital ecosystem, with newer, encrypted social messaging platforms such as Element, SimpleX, and Signal emerging as preferred channels for clandestine communication. In tandem, the rise of digital propaganda tools, including newly established online publications like El Wafa, underscores a renewed effort by extremist actors to reshape recruitment and indoctrination strategies within the region. Despite the implementation of proactive counterterrorism measures and Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) programs by national authorities, violent incidents persist—such as the recent attack in the Philippines, which may be linked to internal sabotage efforts by factions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and other terrorist groups, possibly aimed at disrupting the upcoming BARMM elections. Meanwhile in Indonesia, the ongoing intent of certain individuals to join FTF networks in Syria show that there is still an ideology of establishing an Islamic caliphate in Syria, despite its operational collapse in 2019. Meanwhile in Thailand, there is growing concern over the gradual infiltration of Daesh-inspired narratives within local communities especially in Southern part. If the Thai government continues to focus exclusively on countering separatist violence, it may overlook the emerging ideological threat posed by transnational jihadist movements. Preventive actions need to be implemented early to ensure that the Daesh narrative does not spread widely and to identify early signs of radicalisation.
Malaysia continues to implement proactive and preventative measures, focusing particularly on early intervention to prevent the radicalization of its citizens and ensure that no one becomes a conduit for violent extremist ideologies that could jeopardize national security. While the ongoing instability in the Middle East and the relocation of Daesh’s operational base could influence the flow of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) and global terrorism trends, Malaysia’s security agencies remain vigilant and fully prepared to address any potential threats. The growing spread of extremist ideology in Southern Thailand will also have a detrimental impact due to the extensive land border shared by Malaysia and Thailand. In line with Malaysia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN in 2025, the National Security Council (NSC) has activated the Crisis Management Team (CMT) Anti-Terrorism Task Force under NSC Directive No. 18. The Royal Malaysia Police (RMP) and Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) have been directed to strengthen their preparedness and operational readiness to counter any form of terrorist threat or civil disturbance, particularly during the ASEAN 2025 Summit and other major regional events.
In conclusion, the threat of terrorism, both globally and regionally, is expected to continue and evolve, causing significant concern among nations, particularly due to the ongoing breaches of ceasefire agreements by Israel. Daesh’s strategic shift toward Africa seems to be a calculated effort to secure more sustainable human and financial resources to further its ideological goals. The group’s media operations are also likely to become more sophisticated, utilizing the latest advancements in social media and online propaganda to strengthen their message. As terrorist networks adapt alongside technological advancements, the response must be equally swift and comprehensive, requiring coordinated efforts from all relevant parties. In Malaysia, the integration of intelligence, operational coordination, and inter-agency information sharing has significantly improved the nation’s ability to identify early signs of extremism. However, the increasing complexity of extremist recruitment, especially through online platforms, calls for a whole-of-society approach, involving not only government bodies but also civil society, educational institutions, and NGOs, with a particular focus on protecting youth from radicalization. Efforts by extremists to attract sympathizers in Malaysia persist, with the continued presence of propaganda and posters targeting the country. Although the risk of terrorist acts is classified as “possible” and the current threat level in Malaysia is moderate, terrorist groups still manage to attract sympathizers. As a result, all relevant stakeholders must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing this issue.