The third quarter of Terrorism Watch 2025 explores the most recent events and developments pertaining to terror-related incidents in Southeast Asia and significant incidents worldwide from July to September 2025.
Several countries including Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria has continued to face ongoing terrorist threats from domestic instability and extremist movements. Groups such as Al-Shabaab and Daesh-linked factions remained active, launching attacks against civilians, security personnel and places of worship. The spread of online propaganda and hate messages has further driven radicalization, allowing extremist networks to sustain their influence. At the same time, persistent conflicts in Syria and parts of Africa have created conditions conducive to the revival of militant activity and the potential reappearance of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) and lone-wolf actors on a global scale.
At the regional level, the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia remains a serious concern. Extremist groups in the region continue to demonstrate active and adaptive operations, with a growing tendency to exploit technological advancements, particularly social media platforms, as key channels for communication, recruitment and the dissemination of radical ideologies that are difficult to detect.
In Malaysia, the national threat level remains at a moderate stage, indicating the possibility of an attack but with no specific or confirmed threat identified. Nevertheless, concerns persist over potential actions by individuals influenced by extremist ideologies (lone-wolf actors) who may attempt to exploit the ongoing ASEAN Summit 2025 in Malaysia to attract attention or promote certain ideologies. Although the risk of physical attacks remains low, the spread of online radicalisation and the dissemination of extremist narratives in public spaces continue to be key areas of concern.
In summary, the third quarter of 2025 has seen an escalation in terrorist threats at both global and regional levels. The increasing reliance on advanced technology by terrorist organisations highlights the urgency for a unified and strategic response. Regional countries must take proactive and coordinated measures to address this evolving security challenge.
INTRODUCTION
Across several nations, the third quarter of 2025 has been characterised by notable developments, with terrorist and militant groups sustaining their activities in conflict areas to consolidate and strengthen their influence.
The following are the highlights of recent terrorism-related occurrences around the world:
a. Pakistan.
(1) On 13 Jul 25, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) launched a drone attack on the Miryan Police Station in Bannu District. This incident marked the fifth attack targeting the same police station within a month. However, the assault did not result in any casualties or structural damage. Security forces subsequently conducted a comprehensive search operation and reinforced security measures throughout the Bannu District.
(2) On 29 Sep 25, a senior leader of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) was killed in the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan. The individual, identified as Muhammad Ihsani @ Anwaar, was reportedly a key figure in ISKP’s terrorist operations, including organising training and coordinating the movement of suicide bombers into Pakistan. He also served as a facilitator in the major 2022 attack at Kocha Risaldar, Peshawar, Pakistan, which claimed 67 lives.
(3) The drone attack carried out by TTP highlights the group’s growing threat and enhanced capability to operate using advanced quadcopter technology, raising concerns over Pakistan’s security, particularly the safety of military installations. Although Pakistani security forces were unable to intercept the attack, the tightening of security measures in Bannu is expected to temporarily mitigate the threat. At the same time, Pakistan continues to face cross-border terrorism following the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remaining key hotspots. The death of the ISKP leader in Mazar-i-Sharif is anticipated to weaken the group’s operational capacity while providing an opportunity for the Pakistani government to strengthen security operations and intelligence cooperation in addressing the increasingly complex threat landscape.
b. Somalia.
(1) 15 Jul 2025, the Al-Shabaab terrorist group carried out a suicide car bombing targeting a convoy of Ugandan peacekeepers near the towns of Sabid and Anole in the Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. The deadly attack claimed the lives of 20 Ugandan peacekeepers serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), while more than 43 others were injured. The incident also resulted in the deaths of nine Somali security personnel and injuries to eight others, with at least three armored vehicles destroyed in the explosion. This marked the second deadly bombing in recent weeks targeting Ugandan forces operating in the area.
(2) On 5 Aug 25, at least 70 Al-Shabaab militants were killed in a military operation conducted by Somali security forces with support from the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) in the Lower Shabelle region. During the operation, Al-Shabaab attempted to launch a suicide bombing using two explosive-laden vehicles. However, Somali forces responded swiftly and successfully foiled the attack. The incident resulted in the deaths of two security personnel, while 12 others were injured.
(3) Terrorist incidents in Somalia have continued to rise despite ongoing government-led operations. Al-Shabaab remains active, maintaining its modus operandi of suicide bombings across volatile regions. The group’s attacks on security forces are believed to be retaliatory, following recent territorial gains by Somali and Ugandan forces with AUSSOM’s support. Nevertheless, the successful military operation that eliminated a large number of Al-Shabaab militants marks a significant achievement for Somali forces in curbing the group’s expanding influence. In response to renewed Al-Shabaab advances in several towns, the Somali government has intensified counter-terrorism operations, particularly in the group’s strongholds. Current efforts are focused on strengthening security control in high-risk areas and restoring government presence in affected locations, a move expected to weaken Al-Shabaab’s operational network and disrupt future large-scale attacks.
c. Syria.
(1) On 1 Sep 25, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) successfully arrested Ahmed Mahmoud @ Abu Mansour, a senior Daesh leader, in the city of Raqqa, Syria. He is believed to have been involved in attacks against security forces and in orchestrating a series of bombings targeting civilians, aimed at instilling fear and destabilising the region.
(2) Since losing its main territories in Syria in 2019, Daesh has shifted to guerrilla tactics and sleeper-cell operations, particularly in rural areas, carrying out a series of small-scale attacks. Amid the ongoing political instability and internal conflict in the newly formed Syrian administration, Daesh has sought to rebuild its networks by reviving its ideological influence. However, the recent arrest of a senior Daesh leader by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) represents a major setback to the group’s operational capacity. Although Daesh continues to pose a potential threat to Syria’s security and stability, this success demonstrates the effectiveness of the SDF and international coalition in curbing the group’s resurgence in the country.
d. Congo.
(1) On 27 Jul 25, more than 40 Christian worshippers were killed in a deadly attack on a church in the town of Komanda, Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The attack was believed to have been orchestrated by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a terrorist group affiliated with Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL). Daesh later claimed responsibility for the incident through its official Telegram channel. The United Nations Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) reported that at least 43 people were killed, including 19 women and nine children. The DRC government described the attack as a large-scale massacre carried out in retaliation for recent security operations targeting the ADF.
(2) Recent developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) indicate a worsening terrorism threat, particularly in the eastern regions such as Ituri. This situation stems from the increasing frequency of attacks carried out by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a group affiliated with Daesh. Established in Uganda in the late 1990s, the ADF relocated its operations to the DRC in 2002 and pledged allegiance to Daesh in 2019. Since then, the group has continued to conduct terrorist attacks across eastern Congo. Its deliberate targeting of places of worship and civilians has not only resulted in significant loss of life but also strengthened its foothold in areas with weak security control. This ongoing instability poses a major challenge to recovery and peacebuilding efforts in the region.
e. Nigeria.
(1) On 23 Aug 25, Nigerian security forces conducted Operation Hadin Kai, resulting in the deaths of nine Boko Haram militants, including two senior leaders, in Borno State. The leaders, identified as Abu Nazir from Juye and Abu Fatima from Koloram, were killed during intense clashes in Wulgo, Borno State. During the operation, security forces also seized several AK-47 rifles, ammunition, and six motorcycles belonging to the militants.
(2) The recent development in Nigeria reflects the continued commitment of Nigerian security forces, together with international partners, in combating terrorism within the country. This incident serves as an indicator that Nigeria remains under serious threat from Boko Haram. The success of the latest operation also demonstrates the effectiveness of Nigeria’s offensive approach in weakening Boko Haram’s influence in Borno, thereby disrupting the group’s leadership structure. However, the threat posed by Boko Haram remains significant, as the group continues to carry out attacks in various strategic locations. Nigerian forces are expected to maintain sustained pressure to gradually erode the group’s operational and ideological influence.
TERRORISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
INDONESIA
On 5 Aug 25, Indonesia’s Special Detachment 88 (Densus 88) arrested two individuals, one of whom was a civil servant in Banda Aceh. Both were detained on suspicion of involvement in terrorism-related activities. The suspects were identified only by their initials which are M (40), a civil servant with the Aceh Ministry of Religious Affairs, and ZA (47).
On 5 Sep 25, two Facebook users which identified as “Muhammad Arsy” and “Jhon Pelor”, suspected of supporting Daesh and believed to be based in Indonesia, were observed posting anti-government propaganda and incitements to lone-wolf violence. “Muhammad Arsy” had been active since 26 August 2025 and maintained 913 friends, while “Jhon Pelor” had been active since May 2025 with 3,800 friends. Their posts contained threats against Indonesian security forces (including Densus 88), calls to burn Indonesian posters, and exhortations to “attack” cities such as Jakarta, Bandung, Bogor, Bekasi, Solo, Surabaya, and Medan by recommending the use of Molotov cocktails, knives, and firearms.
The current situation in Indonesia demonstrates that online propaganda and lone-wolf incitement spread through social media platforms such as Facebook have become a serious threat to national security and stability. Such propaganda not only promotes anti-government sentiment but also contains violent elements, including calls to attack major cities using weapons such as Molotov cocktails, knives, and firearms. Daesh supporters are increasingly exploiting digital platforms to spread radical ideologies that encourage individuals to commit acts of terrorism independently, without the need for organised groups by making detection and prevention far more difficult for authorities.
THE PHILIPPINES
On 4 Sep 25, eight former members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) surrendered to the military in Barangay Kabengi, Maguindanao del Sur. Three of them were identified as experts in the assembly of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that could be detonated remotely using mobile phones. Major General Donald Gumiran, Commander of the 6th Infantry Division, stated that the group turned over their weapons and homemade explosives to the 90th Infantry Battalion before signing a symbolic pledge of renunciation against BIFF at the battalion headquarters, witnessed by Brigadier General Edgar Catu, as well as representatives from the local government and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
On 29 Sep 25, a member of the Dawlah Islamiyah – Hassan Group (DI-HG) was killed during a series of security operations conducted by Philippine forces in Maguindanao del Sur. The suspect reportedly opened fire on the security personnel during an arrest operation, injuring one officer in the exchange. The deceased was identified as Moner Usman. Authorities also seized a homemade Uzi submachine gun, several rounds of ammunition, and a quantity of suspected methamphetamine.
The surrender of eight former members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao del Sur reflects the continued effectiveness of the reconciliation program and local negotiations led by the Philippine military, in collaboration with the BARMM government and Moro community leaders. The inclusion of individuals skilled in bomb-making among those who surrendered indicates a significant weakening of BIFF’s operational network, thereby reducing the threat of bomb attacks in Central Mindanao. The main factors driving these surrenders appear to be assurances of safety, economic assistance, and the positive examples set by former members who have successfully reintegrated into society. This development demonstrates that a comprehensive approach combining military action and socio-economic development can effectively accelerate the resolution of the remaining insurgency in the Philippines.
MALAYSIA
On 26 Jul 25, several individuals believed to be affiliated with a group promoting extremist ideology were detected distributing extremist propaganda to participants during a street rally in Kuala Lumpur. The contents of the leaflets called for the establishment of a caliphate system, a narrative commonly propagated by leaders of extremist groups to garner public support for their cause.
On 26 Aug 25, an individual suspected to be a Malaysian national was identified using the online identity “Melandri Windfred (Abu Furqan al-Kampari Sumatrawi)” [UID: 61574130639558] on social media. The person is believed to be actively involved in disseminating Daesh-related propaganda. Investigations revealed that the individual’s personal Facebook account, created on 20 March 2025, has approximately 3,300 friends. Additionally, the person was found sharing and distributing various forms of Daesh propaganda, including pro-Daesh narratives and videos depicting the group’s activities. Such activities are considered capable of influencing indoctrination processes and potentially garnering public support for militant ideologies.
CONCLUSION
At the global level, countries such as Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria continue to face persistent threats of terrorism due to ongoing internal conflicts. At the same time, extremist sentiments and hate-based ideologies continue to be exploited by supporters and sympathisers of terrorist groups to garner public backing and expand their influence within society. In the African region, Somalia remains under constant threat from Al-Shabaab, which continues to carry out attacks despite numerous security operations, particularly against Ugandan forces serving as peacekeepers in the country. Overall, terrorist activities across the region remain active, as seen in the Congo where Daesh affiliates launched attacks on churches, an act that risks fuelling inter-communal tensions and reflects the growing spread of radical and extremist influence in the area. Meanwhile, the prolonged internal conflict in Syria continues to provide Daesh with opportunities to exploit political and security instability in its effort to reassert its presence. This situation raises the potential for a resurgence of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) and lone-wolf actors at both the global and regional levels.
The terrorism threat level in Malaysia remains at a moderate level, indicating the possibility of an attack, though no specific threat has been identified. The recent incident involving individuals distributing radical materials during a public gathering in Kuala Lumpur highlights the need for heightened vigilance by the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) and the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) to curb the influence of extremist narratives at an early stage. In this regard, the implementation of the Malaysia Action Plan on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (MyPCVE) plays a crucial role in strengthening preventive measures and enhancing community resilience to identify and reject extremist ideologies.
The threat of terrorism at the global and regional levels is expected to persist and continue to pose concerns for countries worldwide. This situation is driven by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict and internal tensions in several nations, which indirectly create fertile ground for the resurgence of extremist ideologies. Furthermore, the widespread use of social media in daily life has become a key enabler of extremist propaganda dissemination, increasing the likelihood of lone-wolf actors and making it more difficult for authorities to detect and prevent threats at an early stage. Therefore, enhanced regional cooperation and intelligence sharing among nations remain crucial to ensure that any form of local threat or movement involving Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) can be identified and addressed in a comprehensive and coordinated manner.